当强生产脉冲渐弱，基建有望接过大旗

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the infrastructure sector, indicating that it may take over as the main driver of economic growth as manufacturing production momentum weakens [1][17]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector experienced a strong production pulse at the end of 2024, but this momentum is expected to decline in 2025, leading to a decrease in the manufacturing PMI [1][17]. - The recovery of enterprises post-Spring Festival is uneven, with large manufacturing firms showing significant improvement while small and medium-sized enterprises face challenges [1][3]. - Infrastructure investment is accelerating, leading to a strong rebound in the construction PMI, which reflects a comprehensive push in infrastructure investment following the holiday [1][13]. - The report emphasizes that infrastructure may serve as a transitional support for economic growth until consumer demand picks up, as the recovery in consumption is expected to take time [1][18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Uneven Recovery of Enterprises Post-Spring Festival - In February, the manufacturing PMI rebounded primarily due to large enterprises, with a PMI of 52.5%, up 2.6 percentage points from January, marking the highest level in 22 months [3][5]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises lagged in recovery, with PMIs of 49.2% and 46.3%, respectively, indicating a decline in new orders and production activities [3][5]. 2. Acceleration of Infrastructure Investment - The construction PMI saw a significant rebound to 52.7% in February, driven by the acceleration of infrastructure projects post-holiday [13][14]. - The civil engineering business activity index rose to 65.1%, indicating robust activity in infrastructure construction [13][14]. 3. Infrastructure as a Key Support for Economic Growth - The report highlights that infrastructure investment is crucial for countering the weakening of exports and real estate, with local government bond issuance in January-February reaching 1.86 trillion yuan, significantly higher than previous years [17][21]. - The early release of major project lists by provinces indicates a proactive approach to stabilize growth through infrastructure [17][18].