A股策略周思考：回调怎么看？

Domestic Economic Indicators - February manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2%, up from 49.1%, indicating a return to expansion territory[30] - New orders index increased to 51.1%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month[30] - Non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4%, slightly up from 50.2% in January[32] International Economic Context - US Q4 GDP growth was revised to 2.3%, unchanged from the initial estimate, reflecting a slowdown from 3.1% in Q3[47] - Consumer spending contributed 2.79 percentage points to GDP growth, while private investment declined by 5.7%[48] - Concerns over "stagflation" in the US are rising, with the economic surprise index dropping to -10.7, a new low[11] Market Trends and Adjustments - AH market indices saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite down 1.7% and the Hang Seng down 2.3%[20] - The AH premium index fell to its lowest point since 2024, indicating potential market corrections[24] - Emerging markets are showing signs of recovery following adjustments in the "Trump trade" narrative[18] Industry Focus and Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: AI technology breakthroughs, consumer stock valuation recovery, and undervalued dividend stocks[4] - The recovery in consumer sectors is supported by low valuations and declining interest rates, despite macroeconomic pessimism posing risks[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected geopolitical conflicts, persistent overseas inflation, and tighter liquidity conditions[4]