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石油石化行业周报:俄乌冲突或难迅速达成协议,油价短期尚有韧性
Ping An Securities·2025-03-02 11:44

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may not reach a swift resolution, providing short-term support for oil prices. Recent data shows a slight decline in WTI crude oil futures by 0.46% and Brent oil futures by 1.47% from February 21 to February 28, 2025. Geopolitical risks are expected to remain a concern, particularly with ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine [9][10]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemical - The report highlights that the OPEC+ group is considering delaying its voluntary production cut exit, which could alleviate supply pressures in the first half of 2025. Additionally, U.S. sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil exports are expected to support oil prices due to reduced supply concerns [10][9]. Fluorochemicals - Demand for refrigerants is driven by national subsidies, with production aligning with sales. The report anticipates continued price increases for refrigerants due to tight supply and improving demand. The new subsidy policy for household appliances is expected to stimulate demand significantly, with a projected 13.5% year-on-year increase in air conditioning production in March 2025 [9][10]. Fertilizers - The report notes strict controls on new phosphate and ammonium production capacity in China, which is expected to boost demand during the spring farming season. This could lead to an upward trend in the fertilizer market [61]. Chemical Fibers - There is an expectation of increased demand in March, with polyester prices showing a slight increase. The report suggests that the market is optimistic about the upcoming demand recovery [72]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is expected to see an upward trend due to inventory reduction and improving fundamentals. The report recommends focusing on companies involved in domestic substitution and cyclical recovery [79].