Economic Outlook - Recent U.S. economic data has shown persistent weakness, leading to a significant downgrade of Q1 2025 GDP growth forecast to a negative range by the Federal Reserve model[1] - The market's recession narrative has resurfaced, with expectations for interest rate cuts rising sharply due to economic concerns and tariff impacts[1] Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.94%, while U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 10-year yield down 22 basis points to 4.21% and the 2-year yield down 21 basis points to 3.99%[1] - Major stock indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Hang Seng Index dropping by 0.98%, 3.47%, and 2.29% respectively[1] Inflation and Consumer Confidence - The January PCE inflation data met expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index for February recorded a low of 98.3, the lowest since June 2024, indicating rising recession expectations among consumers[1] Tariff Policy Impact - Trump's tariff policies have escalated, including a new 10% tariff on China, which has heightened market uncertainty and risk aversion[2] - The House of Representatives passed a budget resolution for FY2025, potentially increasing the deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, which may complicate future fiscal policies[2] Employment Projections - The consensus among analysts is for an addition of 160,000 non-farm jobs in February, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.0%[1] - Concerns exist regarding the impact of immigration policies on job growth, which may lead to short-term employment disruptions[1]
海外周报:衰退担忧与关税冲击带动美债利率大跌
Soochow Securities·2025-03-02 11:45