国内观察：2025年2月PMI：季节性回升下，仍需关注两会增量政策

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In February 2025, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2%, up from 49.1% in January[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.4%, compared to 50.2% in the previous month[2] - The seasonal rebound in PMI is influenced by the post-Spring Festival recovery, with a month-on-month improvement of 1.1% in February, exceeding the average of 0.86% since 2010[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Insights - The production index rose to 52.5% (+2.7 percentage points), and the new orders index increased to 51.1% (+1.9 percentage points), both reaching their highest levels since April 2024[2] - Supply remains slightly better than demand, as indicated by the production and new orders indices[2] - The inventory index shows a divergence, with finished goods inventory rising while raw materials inventory declined, reflecting different recovery paces in upstream and downstream sectors[2] Group 3: Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs are above the neutral line, while energy-intensive and consumer goods sectors remain below it[2] - The construction PMI rose to 52.7%, a 3.4 percentage point increase, driven by accelerated infrastructure projects post-holiday[2] - The service sector PMI decreased to 50.0% (-0.3 percentage points), with consumer-related industries showing a notable decline in business activity[2] Group 4: Price Indices and Risks - The main raw material purchase price index increased to 50.3% (+1.3 percentage points), while the factory price index rose to 48.5% (+1.1 percentage points), both remaining at low absolute levels[2] - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, uncertainties from tariff policies, and unexpected changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[2]