策略周观点：可能是向上突破前的最后休整

Group 1 - The report suggests that the recent upward trend in the market, which began before the Spring Festival, is likely to develop into the second wave of a bull market. However, initial gains may be limited by seasonal factors and last year's high points [2][6][18] - The recent market adjustment is attributed to seasonal profit-taking ahead of the Two Sessions and overheating in specific trading segments, particularly in TMT stocks and low AH share premiums [3][9][12] - Economic and profit expectations have not yet manifested, with the report indicating that concerns over US tariff policies are not the core issue affecting the stock market. The report anticipates significant fluctuations in economic data during March and April, which could lead to upward movements in the market [3][12][14] Group 2 - Signs of a potential upward breakout in the index are emerging, but confirmation is still needed. Recent improvements in financing, PMI, and second-hand housing sales indicate a positive trend, although the strength of these improvements remains uncertain [3][14][15] - The report highlights that the rapid increase in financing balances has reached historical highs, indicating signs of incremental capital inflow, despite a recent decline in ETF shares [15][17] - The report recommends a strategic focus on sectors such as Hong Kong internet stocks, steel, and banking, while suggesting caution in real estate until further data validation is available [24][26]