海外市场月报：美股交易衰退了么？

Market Performance - In February, global stock markets showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Tech and Hang Seng Index leading gains globally[4] - The US major indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq down by -1.4%, -1.6%, and -4.0% respectively[4] - European markets saw collective gains, with Germany's DAX, France's CAC40, and the UK's FTSE 100 rising by 3.8%, 2.0%, and 1.6% respectively[4] Economic Indicators - US initial jobless claims rose by 22,000 to 242,000, the highest level since October 2024[4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for January recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, the lowest since June 2024[4] - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for February was reported at 98.3, below market expectations[4] Market Sentiment - The market is beginning to trade on "recession" narratives, indicated by a significant drop in retail sales and consumer confidence[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield has been declining, recently falling below 4.2%[4] - Current market conditions suggest a narrative of moderate economic weakening rather than a significant risk of hard landing[4] Asset Allocation Strategy - March is expected to be a macro-heavy month with various uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and upcoming FOMC meetings[4] - Recommended asset allocation includes a focus on short-term US Treasuries and a balanced approach between value (Dow) and growth (XBI) stocks[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, which could lead to tighter monetary policies in the US and Europe[4] - Global economic conditions may worsen, impacting market performance negatively[4] - Escalation of geopolitical conflicts could heighten market volatility and risk aversion[4]