农林牧渔行业专题：2月USDA下调全球玉米、大豆产量，上调小麦产量

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The USDA's February report indicates a decrease in global corn and soybean production, while wheat production is expected to rise [1][4] - The global corn supply-demand gap is widening, leading to a decrease in the corn stock-to-use ratio, which is favorable for international corn prices [4][10] - Domestic corn market activity is recovering post-Spring Festival, with strong demand from feed and processing sectors [4][22] Summary by Sections Corn - For the 2024/25 season, global corn production is forecasted at 1.212 billion tons, a decrease of 17.6 million tons from the previous year, primarily due to drought conditions in South America [10][11] - Global corn consumption is projected to increase to 1.238 billion tons, with ending stocks expected to drop to 290 million tons, marking the lowest stock-to-use ratio since the 2016/17 season at 20.3% [10][18] - China's corn production is estimated at 295 million tons, with imports expected to decrease to 10 million tons, reflecting a tightening domestic supply [18][20] Wheat - The USDA forecasts global wheat production for 2024/25 at 794 million tons, an increase of 2.58 million tons from the previous year, driven by higher yields in Kazakhstan and Argentina [29][30] - Global wheat consumption is expected to rise to 804 million tons, with ending stocks projected to fall to 258 million tons, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 25.4%, the lowest since the 2015/16 season [29][31] - China's wheat imports are expected to decline to 8 million tons, the lowest level in five years [30] Soybeans - Global soybean production for 2024/25 is projected at 421 million tons, a decrease of 3.5 million tons from the previous year, largely due to adverse weather in South America [6][29] - Global soybean consumption is expected to increase to 406 million tons, with ending stocks projected at 124 million tons, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 21.1%, the highest since the 2019/20 season [6][29]