钢铁行业周报：限产是否落地？钢铁股的上涨能否持续？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The current market is focused on whether production restrictions will be implemented and if the rise in steel stocks can be sustained. These two issues are not necessarily equivalent. The current supply-side reform may reflect a more nuanced approach compared to the "one-size-fits-all" model of 2016, requiring a more detailed process and timeline. Even if production restrictions are implemented in the short term, their intensity may not match that of 2016. The core of the current steel stock rally lies in the fundamentals and valuations being at a double bottom, with supply-side reform expectations merely providing a catalyst for upward elasticity. Recent high-frequency data shows stabilization, with production and inventory levels remaining low, maintaining a weak balance in the steel fundamentals [2][8] Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - Seasonal recovery in demand is ongoing, with the apparent consumption of steel rising by 4.87% week-on-week, although it is down 0.88% year-on-year. Long products increased by 12.26% week-on-week but decreased by 6.72% year-on-year, while flat products saw a slight increase of 0.45% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 3.44%. The average daily transaction volume of construction steel was 105,700 tons, up by 170 tons week-on-week [5][6] - Daily molten iron production slightly increased to 2.2794 million tons, up by 4,300 tons per day week-on-week. The production of five major steel products rose by 0.91% week-on-week but fell by 1.75% year-on-year [5][6] Inventory Levels - National total inventory increased by 0.75% week-on-week, remaining at historically low levels. Specifically, long product inventory rose by 1.49% week-on-week but fell by 35.54% year-on-year, while flat product inventory decreased by 0.22% week-on-week and fell by 6.15% year-on-year [6] Price Trends - Recent price trends show that Shanghai rebar dropped to 3,310 CNY/ton, down by 90 CNY/ton week-on-week, while Shanghai hot-rolled steel fell to 3,410 CNY/ton, down by 50 CNY/ton week-on-week. The estimated profit margin for rebar is approximately 48 CNY/ton below the breakeven line [6][8] Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunities - The market sentiment indicates that steel stocks have performed well under the backdrop of supply-side reform expectations, outperforming black commodities. Unlike previous rounds of supply-side reform, this time, leading stocks have also shown strong performance, reflecting a shift in market perception towards steel leaders as having growth attributes rather than being purely cyclical stocks. The focus remains on the dual bottom of fundamentals and valuations, presenting investment opportunities in steel stocks [7][8][22]