2025年2月PMI数据点评：复工复产叠加“抢出口”，PMI超季节性回升

Economic Activity - In February, the manufacturing PMI rose from 49.1% to 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points, exceeding seasonal expectations[2] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces in February was 78%, up from 77.6% in January, while daily crude steel production increased to 2.72 million tons, compared to 2.64 million tons in January[2] External Demand vs. Internal Demand - The new orders index increased from 49.2% to 51.1%, primarily driven by external demand, with the new export orders index rising from 46.4% to 48.6%, a 2.2 percentage point increase[3] - In February, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies reached 188.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, compared to a decline of 3.2% in January[3] Price Trends - The PMI raw material purchase price index and the PMI factory price index rose to 50.8% and 48.5%, respectively, indicating price improvements[4] - The 12-month average PMI factory price index slightly increased from 47.24% to 47.28%, suggesting a potential slight rise or stabilization in PPI year-on-year growth[4] Service Sector Performance - The service sector PMI decreased from 50.3% to 50%, remaining at the critical point of expansion[4] - The average daily trading volume in the stock market increased from 1.2 trillion yuan in January to 1.8 trillion yuan in February[4]