蜜雪集团：市占率第一的平价奶茶企业-20250303

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to maintain steady store expansion both domestically and internationally, with a higher growth rate overseas compared to the domestic market. Revenue is projected to grow continuously, with net profit growth outpacing revenue growth. The expected revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 24.9 billion, 28.8 billion, and 33.0 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 22.7%, 15.8%, and 14.3% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 4.44 billion, 5.22 billion, and 6.10 billion RMB, with growth rates of 41.4%, 17.7%, and 16.8% respectively. The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 15.1, 13.5, and 11.5, which are below the industry average [3]. Industry Overview - The current beverage market is experiencing growth in both supply and demand. The ready-to-drink tea market in China is expected to reach a market size of 368.9 billion RMB by 2025, with a CAGR of 16.4% from 2024 to 2028. The penetration of ready-to-drink beverages in lower-tier cities is increasing, with an expected market share of 48% in these cities by 2025 [31][24]. Company Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a leading market share in both the domestic and Southeast Asian markets, with significant gaps between it and the second-ranked competitor in terms of total GMV, cup volume, and store count. As of 2023, the company had approximately 30,300 tea drink stores and ranked first in all key metrics [38][39]. - The company adopts a price-sensitive strategy, keeping the average price of its products below 10 RMB, which enhances its competitive edge in the market. The menu includes popular items like ice cream and pearl milk tea, with prices significantly lower than competitors [44][46]. - The company is actively expanding its store network, with a total of 40,510 stores in China and 4,792 overseas as of September 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 25.9% and 20.6% respectively [47]. - The company has a robust supply chain, with over 60% of its raw materials sourced in-house, allowing it to maintain lower procurement costs compared to industry averages. The company has five production bases with significant unused capacity, providing room for future expansion [53][55]. Financial Analysis - The company achieved a revenue of 18.7 billion RMB in the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21%. The revenue composition indicates that 94% comes from product sales, while 3% and 2% come from equipment sales and franchise-related services respectively [10].