2025年2月PMI数据点评：节后复工及稳增长政策发力，2月制造业PMI指数超预期回升

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In February 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from January, indicating a return to the expansion zone[1] - The production index in February reached 52.5%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous month, outperforming major industry operating rate indicators[2] - The new orders index increased to 51.1%, a rise of 1.9 percentage points, marking the highest level in nearly 10 months[2] Economic Policy Impact - The rebound in manufacturing PMI was driven by post-holiday resumption of work and effective growth-stabilizing policies, particularly in durable consumer goods and infrastructure investment[2] - Large enterprises' PMI surged from 49.9% to 52.5%, significantly contributing to the overall manufacturing PMI increase[2] Challenges for SMEs - The PMI for small enterprises decreased from 46.5% to 46.3%, indicating ongoing contraction and highlighting persistent market demand issues[2] - Over 60% of enterprises report insufficient demand, suggesting a need for further economic stimulus[2] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchase price index rose to 50.8%, up 1.3 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone due to rising prices of metals and increased procurement activities[3] - The factory price index increased to 48.5%, a rise of 1.1 percentage points, reflecting the impact of raw material price increases and improved market demand[3] Export Orders and Services - The new export orders index rose by 2.2 percentage points to 48.6%, exceeding market expectations despite adverse external trade conditions[4] - The services PMI fell to 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to seasonal declines in retail and hospitality sectors[4] Construction Sector Performance - The construction PMI increased significantly to 52.7%, up 3.4 percentage points, driven by seasonal recovery in infrastructure investment[5] - The civil engineering activity index exceeded 60%, indicating robust infrastructure investment momentum in the first quarter[5] Future Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is expected to remain in the expansion zone in March, supported by historical seasonal trends and upcoming policy announcements aimed at stabilizing growth[6] - Anticipated adjustments in domestic counter-cyclical measures will likely enhance macroeconomic stability amid increasing external uncertainties[6]