煤炭与消费用燃料行业周报：如何解读中煤协倡议“有序推动煤炭产量控制”？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The China Coal Industry Association and the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association jointly issued an initiative on February 28, 2025, advocating for controlled coal production to maintain supply-demand balance and stabilize coal prices. The effectiveness of this initiative in stabilizing prices will largely depend on improvements in demand and inventory reduction [4][11] - As of February 28, 2025, the market price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal is 690 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 29 CNY/ton. The report anticipates that coal prices may approach a bottom as coal companies are expected to unite in production control to support prices [4][12] - The report highlights that the current downtrend in coal prices is influenced by weak downstream demand and emphasizes the need for demand-side stimulus policies to achieve a fundamental turning point in the market [4][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 1.08% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.15 percentage points. The thermal coal index fell by 1.03%, while the coking coal index dropped by 0.95% [11][15] - The report notes that the coal sector has seen a decline of 17.23% over the past year [19] Price Trends - The report indicates that the market price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal is 690 CNY/ton, down 4.03% from the previous week. The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1390 CNY/ton, also reflecting a decrease [35][12] - The report suggests that the current price levels are approaching long-term contract prices, which may lead to a stabilization of the market if production controls are effectively implemented [4][12] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of February 27, 2025, the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces is 5.371 million tons, a decrease of 11.5% week-on-week. The total coal inventory is 109.438 million tons, down 3.7% from the previous week [28][12] - The report highlights that the supply of coal has increased slightly, with a 2.7% rise in coal supply to 5.235 million tons [28] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, which currently offer attractive dividend yields of 5.4% and 5.6%, respectively, compared to the 10-year government bond yield of 1.7% [4][11] - Suggested stocks include dividend leaders like China Shenhua (A+H) and Shaanxi Coal, as well as growth-oriented companies like Electric Power Investment Energy and Xinji Energy [4]