食品饮料行业点评报告：供需正在趋于平衡，原奶价格有望企稳

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The supply and demand in the dairy industry are approaching balance, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in 2024 due to a reduction in dairy cow inventory and raw milk production [9]. - Since 2018, the number of dairy cows in China has significantly increased, reaching 11.608 million by 2022, a growth of 1.231 million cows, marking the highest level since 2008 [8]. - Domestic raw milk production has risen from 31.1891 million tons in 2013 to 42.8132 million tons in 2023, a 37.27% increase over ten years [8]. - However, liquid milk consumption has declined, leading to an oversupply of raw milk, with a surplus of 3.4 million tons reported in 2022 [8]. - The average price of raw milk has dropped to 3.1 yuan per kilogram as of February 21, 2025, a decrease of 29.22% from the peak in August 2021, affecting the profitability of upstream dairy farming enterprises [9]. - The report suggests that the balance of supply and demand in the raw milk market will benefit the entire industry chain, leading to potential recovery in the valuation of the dairy sector in the secondary market [9]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in dairy cow inventory and raw milk production has not been matched by consumption growth, resulting in a significant oversupply [8]. - The decline in liquid milk consumption in 2022 marked the first drop in eight years, with imports of liquid milk also decreasing by 24.6% [8]. Price Trends - Raw milk prices have been on a downward trend for over three years, impacting the financial performance of dairy farming companies [9]. - The report anticipates that the reduction in dairy cow inventory and raw milk production in 2024 will create conditions for price stabilization [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the dairy product industry, particularly upstream raw milk supply companies, as the market conditions improve [9].