东兴证券：东兴晨报-20250303

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "AI + consumption" as a key driver for promoting consumption, with the introduction of high-cost-performance domestic large models expected to accelerate application implementation [1] - The report identifies three main pathways through which AI can stimulate discretionary consumption: creating new consumer demand, improving service efficiency and consumer experience, and reducing enterprise costs [1] Industry Analysis Discretionary Consumption Sector - Various sub-sectors within discretionary consumption are expected to benefit from the implementation of AI technology, including smart home appliances, education, human resources, dining, e-commerce, and offline retail [2] - The education sector has seen early adoption of AI technology, with applications such as AI teaching assistants and intelligent tutoring, which enhance service quality and efficiency [2] - In the human resources sector, AI technology improves candidate-job matching efficiency, reduces recruitment costs, and enhances talent training efficiency [3] - The e-commerce sector leverages AI for data processing and cost reduction, with traditional platforms leading in AI technology adoption [7] - Offline retail is experiencing AI applications that enhance service quality and operational efficiency, with various companies either developing their own AI frameworks or relying on specialized tech firms [7] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that AI technology's impact on the consumer sector is primarily through driving sales, improving operational efficiency, and reducing costs [8] - Companies that have quickly adopted AI technology and built large models are expected to benefit first, with industry leaders having stronger financial capabilities and faster response times [8] - Long-term success will depend on how well companies integrate AI technology into their business models to create differentiated competitive advantages [8] Specific Company Insights - Pop Mart, a leader in the trendy toy industry, reported a revenue of 6.3 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant portion coming from proprietary IP sales [10] - The trendy toy market is projected to grow from 60 billion yuan in 2023 to 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, indicating rapid industry expansion [11] - Pop Mart's strong IP operation capabilities have been validated, with multiple IPs generating over 100 million yuan in sales [12] - The company has established a comprehensive channel network in China, with a growing overseas presence, indicating potential for continued growth [13] Financial Projections - Pop Mart is expected to achieve revenues of 12.4 billion, 17.27 billion, and 21.30 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 2.92 billion, 4.14 billion, and 5.18 billion yuan [14]