制造业重估：化工品需求引擎的切换

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the chemical industry and oil and gas sectors [6]. Core Insights - The demand for chemical products in China is increasingly driven by external demand, with significant growth potential in regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America [1][3]. - The report highlights that the global competitiveness of Chinese chemical companies is expected to enhance, leading to a revaluation of companies with global advantages as the industry recovers from downturns [1][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of export demand as a key growth engine for the chemical industry, particularly in the context of the ongoing economic development in underdeveloped regions [14][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates that from 2020 to 2024, the total external demand exposure for 52 representative chemical products is projected to exceed 40%, with a consistent upward trend [1][2]. - China's chemical sales and export trade accounted for 44% and 10.2% of the global market in 2022, respectively, showing significant growth since 2012 [2][18]. Demand Dynamics - The demand for chemical products is expected to gradually shift towards export orientation, driven by the increasing consumption in regions with lower per capita consumption compared to Western countries [3][14]. - The report notes that the demand growth for chemical products will be supported by both domestic recovery and external demand, particularly from Asia, Africa, and Latin America [4][15]. Supply and Capacity - The report forecasts an improvement in the operating rates and excess capacity of most representative chemical products in 2024 compared to 2022-2023, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [4][15]. - It is anticipated that the capacity growth for many products will slow down in the coming years, contributing to a more favorable competitive landscape [4][15]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Xinhecheng, Meihua Biological Technology, Hengli Petrochemical, and others, highlighting their potential for long-term value appreciation [9][13].