洽洽食品：利润短期承压，期待品类渠道拓展成果-20250304

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qiaqia Food (002557) with a target price of 34.02 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 26.37 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 71.3 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.5 billion CNY, up 6.2% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 saw a revenue of 23.7 billion CNY, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, but net profit dropped by 23.8% due to increased competition and rising costs [7][8]. - The company is focusing on category innovation and channel expansion, with a strategic emphasis on high-quality and cost-effective product offerings. The nut category is expected to grow significantly, with revenue growth rates projected at 10.0%, 9.0%, and 8.0% for 2024-2026 [8][9]. - The overall profitability is expected to improve in the long term, driven by scale effects and cost management, despite short-term pressures from rising raw material prices and increased marketing expenses during peak seasons [7][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 68.06 billion CNY - 2024E: 71.31 billion CNY (4.79% growth) - 2025E: 75.65 billion CNY (6.08% growth) - 2026E: 79.52 billion CNY (5.11% growth) [2][10] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 8.03 billion CNY - 2024E: 8.52 billion CNY (6.19% growth) - 2025E: 9.59 billion CNY (12.48% growth) - 2026E: 10.75 billion CNY (12.10% growth) [2][10] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 1.58 CNY - 2024E: 1.68 CNY - 2025E: 1.89 CNY - 2026E: 2.12 CNY [2][10] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023A: 14.52% - 2024E: 14.35% - 2025E: 14.53% - 2026E: 14.65% [2][10] - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: - 2023A: 17 - 2024E: 16 - 2025E: 14 - 2026E: 12 [2][10] Market Position and Competitive Analysis - Qiaqia Food's product innovation and market promotion capabilities have been validated in the nut and seed categories. The company is expected to open new growth avenues through the introduction of new product lines such as nut milk and peanuts [9]. - The company is actively expanding its distribution channels, particularly in lower-tier cities, and increasing the number of SKUs in bulk channels to enhance market penetration [8][9].