Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, 百济神州 (6160 HK), with a target price raised to HKD 208.80, indicating a potential upside of 25.3% from the current price of HKD 166.70 [1][4][14]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in the U.S. market for its product, Zebutine, which has become the leading treatment for new patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) [2][7]. - The company expects to achieve positive operating profit in 2025, with projected revenues of USD 4.9 to 5.3 billion and a gross margin in the range of 80-90% [7][8]. - The financial forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted upwards, with revenue estimates increased to USD 5.078 billion, reflecting a 10% increase from previous estimates [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: USD 2.459 billion - 2024: USD 3.810 billion - 2025E: USD 5.078 billion - 2026E: USD 6.208 billion - 2027E: USD 7.155 billion - The company anticipates a net profit of USD 59 million in 2025, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [3][15]. - The operating profit is projected to turn positive in 2025, reaching USD 152 million, with a notable increase to USD 931 million by 2026 [8][15]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 52.66%, with a 52-week high of HKD 166.70 and a low of HKD 77.00 [6][14]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 13.65 million shares, indicating strong market interest [6]. Product Pipeline and Future Prospects - The company is advancing its pipeline, particularly in the hematology sector, with key developments expected in the coming years, including potential accelerated approvals for new treatments [7]. - The global peak sales forecast for Zebutine has been raised to USD 6.9 billion, reflecting the product's strong market position and growth potential [7][8].
百济神州：泽布替尼美国市场快速放量，2025年指引经营利润转正，维持买入-20250304