航空供需改善，油运景气向好

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [6] Core Views - The report emphasizes the improvement in supply and demand for aviation and oil transportation, suggesting a favorable outlook for ticket prices and freight rates [1][2][3] - It recommends focusing on alpha stocks with competitive advantages and high dividend yields, particularly in the aviation and oil transportation sectors [1] - The report highlights the need to monitor policy changes and economic data that may influence risk appetite in the transportation sector [4] Aviation Sector - The report notes a steady increase in passenger volume during the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, slightly above the overall inter-regional mobility growth of 7.1% [2][13] - It anticipates that ticket prices will gradually improve due to a low base effect, with expectations for a positive year-on-year change in ticket prices as supply growth slows [16][18] - The report identifies key stocks to watch, including China National Aviation and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements [22] Shipping and Port Sector - The report indicates that oil transportation rates are expected to rise due to geopolitical events and a rebound in demand after the holiday season [3][34] - It forecasts a potential increase in container shipping rates in March, driven by seasonal demand recovery and price hikes on European routes [35] - The report suggests monitoring the impact of geopolitical events and U.S. tariff policies on shipping rates and demand [34][60] Road and Rail Sector - The report highlights significant improvements in highway freight traffic, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% in early 2025 [4] - It notes a slowdown in railway passenger growth and coal transport due to high inventory levels, indicating a need for careful observation in the coming months [4][5] Logistics and Express Delivery Sector - The report states that express delivery volumes have exceeded expectations, with year-on-year growth rates of 39% for collection and 42% for delivery [5][55] - It recommends focusing on leading express delivery companies, such as SF Express, which are expected to benefit from foreign investment in China [58] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring cross-border logistics and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on e-commerce volumes [60]