Deepseek影响系列报告一（AI基建）：国内云厂商与数据中心有望迎新周期

Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Cloud Investment - Deepseek's breakthrough technology significantly lowers costs and user barriers, boosting demand for cloud computing from government and enterprises[1] - Major cloud providers in China are expected to increase capital expenditure (Capex) in AI, with a projected total Capex of approximately 500 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of nearly 65%[2] - The global Capex for leading cloud service providers (CSPs) is estimated to reach $228.3 billion in 2024 and $288.1 billion in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of about 55% and 30% respectively[2] Group 2: Data Center Growth and Copper Demand - The data center industry is entering an upward cycle, with significant increases in capital expenditure expected from leading cloud providers, driving demand for data centers[3] - China's data center copper consumption is projected to grow from 1.2% to 2.5% of total copper consumption from 2024 to 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.3%[4] - Total copper consumption for data centers in China is expected to reach 42,000 tons by 2027, with annual growth rates of 36% in 2025 and 26% in 2026[6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - The IDC industry is currently at a bottom reversal stage, with capital expenditure growth shifting from negative to positive, indicating a recovery in demand[3] - Key risk factors include slower-than-expected development of large models, lower-than-expected capital expenditure from cloud providers, and potential changes in the macroeconomic environment[7] - The demand for AI data centers (AIDC) is expected to increase significantly, with China's intelligent computing capacity projected to double to 2,328 EFLOPS by 2025[3]