高盛：中国白酒追踪：茅台、老窖举办会议强调关注长期可持续增长

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the spirits industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - Moutai and Laojiao are focusing on long-term sustainable growth, with Moutai targeting over Rmb100 billion in sales and a market cap of Rmb1 trillion in the long term [2] - Moutai series spirits have shown strong retail sales momentum during the Lunar New Year (LNY), achieving sales targets [2] - Laojiao's Luzhou Laojiao brand reached over Rmb10 billion in sales in 2024, while Guojiao 1573 continued to register over Rmb20 billion in sales [2] - The spirits industry is experiencing a channel transformation with an emphasis on consumer engagement and premiumization strategies [2] Summary by Sections Moutai Updates - Moutai's March shipment quota is approximately 6% of the full year, with Q1 quota expected to be 35-37% of the annual target [6] - The channel inventory level for Moutai stands at around 0.5 months [6] - Moutai's wholesale price for original cases decreased from Rmb2,240 to Rmb2,230, while unpacked prices fell from Rmb2,220 to Rmb2,200 [8][18] Laojiao Updates - Laojiao is focusing on channel profits and premiumization for 2025, aiming for sustainable growth [2] - The company hosted an annual distributor conference announcing significant sales achievements [2] Market Trends - Fen Wine recorded high single-digit percentage retail sales growth during LNY, outperforming the industry average [7] - Construction activity, which correlates with spirits consumption, has seen a decline in return-to-work progress post-LNY, with only 64.6% of projects resuming as of the fourth week post-LNY [7][9] Pricing Trends - Common Wuliangye's wholesale price remained stable at Rmb950, while Guojiao 1573's price was flat at Rmb870 [18] - The report highlights a general trend of price stability across various high-end liquor brands, with minor fluctuations noted [18][21]