Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the company,阅文集团 (772 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 28.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of HKD 24.85 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the delay in the 新丽 project impacts the 2024 profit expectations, while growth is anticipated in short dramas and derivative IP businesses [2]. - The company is expected to face a net loss of RMB 150-250 million for 2024, primarily due to non-cash goodwill impairment related to the acquisition of 新丽传媒 [5]. - Revenue expectations for 2024 have been slightly reduced by 1% to RMB 7.7 billion, with online business remaining stable and core IP operations expected to grow by 34% [5][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in core IP operations and the impact of AI technology on cost reduction and efficiency [5][6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2026 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 7,012 million - 2024E: RMB 7,695 million - 2025E: RMB 7,882 million - 2026E: RMB 8,220 million - The expected net profit for 2024 is RMB 1,139 million, with a projected increase to RMB 1,445 million in 2025 and RMB 1,568 million in 2026 [3][8][13]. - The report notes a decrease in the adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 by 18% to RMB 1 billion, reflecting a profit margin of 15% [5][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the 2025 adjusted net profit expectation to RMB 14 billion, applying a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times, leading to a target price of HKD 28 [5][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 1.14 for 2024, increasing to RMB 1.41 in 2025 and RMB 1.54 in 2026 [3][8][13]. - The report indicates a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 for 2024, decreasing to 16.5 in 2025 and 15.2 in 2026 [3][8][13].
阅文集团：新丽项目递延影响2024年盈利预期，关注短剧、衍生品等IP业务增长-20250304