BOHAI SECURITIES·2025-03-04 10:39Investment Ratings - Steel industry: Neutral [5] - Non-ferrous metals industry: Positive [5] Core Insights - March is a traditional peak season for steel, with expectations for gradual recovery in demand from the construction sector, supported by automotive and other industries. Steel prices may rebound due to demand, but actual recovery needs to be monitored alongside domestic macro policies and foreign tariff impacts [1][14]. - Copper supply remains tight, providing price support. The "Two New" policies are expected to stimulate consumption, and if demand rebounds, copper prices may have upward potential. Attention should be paid to domestic macro policies and actual demand data, as well as potential new tariffs on copper imports from the U.S. [2][25]. - Aluminum prices have seen a significant decline in February, but profits for electrolytic aluminum companies are expected to improve. March is also a traditional peak season, and if downstream demand recovers well, inventory levels may turn around [2][27]. - Lithium demand is expected to gradually recover in March, but supply remains loose, leading to a weak price outlook [33]. - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to a four-month export suspension of cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has increased purchasing willingness in the downstream market [2][37]. - Nickel prices are expected to remain in a range due to oversupply and inventory pressure, with attention needed on policies from Indonesia and the Philippines [2][39]. Summary by Sections Steel - The PMI index for the steel industry in February was 45.1%, indicating contraction but a 1.8 percentage point increase from the previous month. Steel production is stabilizing post-holiday, but demand recovery is slower than supply [14][15]. - In December 2024, national apparent steel consumption was 109.99 million tons, a 0.01% decrease month-on-month but an 8.45% increase year-on-year [15]. - In December 2024, crude steel production was 75.97 million tons, a 3.10% decrease month-on-month but an 11.80% increase year-on-year [16]. Copper - In December 2024, refined copper production was 1.24 million tons, a 9.62% increase month-on-month and a 6.24% increase year-on-year [25]. - LME copper prices increased by 3.45% to $9,400 per ton, while domestic prices rose by 2.23% to ¥76,900 per ton [25]. Aluminum - In December 2024, domestic alumina production was 7.51 million tons, a 0.65% decrease month-on-month but a 9.70% increase year-on-year [27]. - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.80% to $2,600 per ton, while domestic prices rose by 2.44% to ¥20,600 per ton [27]. Lithium - Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell by 3.14% to ¥75,600 per ton [33]. - Domestic lithium production in January was 35,100 tons, a 9.37% decrease year-on-year [33]. Cobalt - The average price of 1 cobalt increased by 5.99% to ¥177,000 per ton [37]. - Domestic sulfuric acid cobalt production in January was 19,900 tons, a 24.79% decrease year-on-year [37]. Nickel - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.29% to $15,500 per ton, while domestic nickel sulfate prices fell by 0.68% to ¥29,100 per ton [39]. - Domestic electrolytic nickel production in January was 30,000 tons, an 18.70% increase year-on-year [39]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - Prices for rare earths such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide increased by 6.99% to ¥444,000 per ton [41]. - Tungsten concentrate prices decreased by 1.38% to ¥143,000 per ton [44].