2025年2月宏观数据前瞻：2月经济：制造业稳增长，流动性阶段维稳

Economic Overview - February's economic fundamentals show signs of recovery, with both supply and demand improving due to the impact of the Spring Festival, although production recovery outpaces demand[1] - The manufacturing PMI for February is recorded at 50.2%, a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points, indicating a quicker recovery for large enterprises compared to small and medium-sized enterprises[1] - The GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to be around 5%, with Q1 GDP growth potentially reaching 5.1%[1] Industrial Production - The industrial production growth rate for January-February is projected at 5.4% year-on-year, supported by stable recovery policies[2] - The manufacturing investment growth is anticipated at 9.3%, while real estate development investment is expected to decline by 7.4%[4] Consumer Trends - The retail sales growth rate for January-February is estimated at 4.3%, up from 3.7% previously, driven by festive consumption[3] - However, passenger vehicle sales are expected to decline year-on-year, indicating a slower start to the automotive market compared to previous years[3] Investment and Exports - Fixed asset investment growth (excluding rural households) is projected at 4.4%, with infrastructure investment growing by 5.3%[4] - Exports are expected to increase by 6.4% year-on-year, while imports are projected to grow by 1.9%, highlighting structural opportunities in exports due to competitive pricing[5] Inflation and Employment - February's CPI is expected to show a slight decline of -0.4% year-on-year, while PPI is projected to decrease by -2.4%[8] - The urban unemployment rate for February is estimated at 5.3%, reflecting seasonal frictional unemployment as workers return to cities post-holiday[9] Monetary Policy Outlook - February's new RMB loans are expected to be around 1 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 450 billion yuan year-on-year, with M2 growth slowing to 6.8%[10] - A potential reserve requirement ratio cut is anticipated in March, with an overall expectation of 100 basis points reduction in reserve requirements throughout 2025[11]