蜜雪集团：蜜雪冰城：供应链壁垒与下沉红利双轮驱动，全球化打开长期空间-20250304

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 317.80, based on projected earnings growth and market positioning [1][9]. Core Insights - The company, Mixue Group, is positioned as a leader in the global ready-to-drink beverage market, achieving a revenue growth rate of 21.2% and a net profit growth rate of 45.2% in the first three quarters of 2024 [3][4]. - The company's rapid expansion is driven by a combination of supply chain advantages and a focus on lower-tier markets, with a significant presence in both domestic and international markets [5][6]. Company Overview - Mixue Group was founded in 1997 and has grown to operate over 46,479 stores globally, making it the largest ready-to-drink beverage company by store count, with a market share of 19% [3][4]. - The company employs a franchise model with a low initial investment requirement for franchisees, enhancing its expansion capabilities [5][6]. Industry Growth - The ready-to-drink tea market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected CAGR of 19.0% from 2018 to 2023, and expected to reach RMB 312.7 billion in 2024 [4][54]. - The market for affordable ready-to-drink beverages is expanding, with significant growth in lower-tier cities, where Mixue has a strong presence [54][55]. Supply Chain and Business Model - Mixue's competitive advantage lies in its vertically integrated supply chain, which allows for cost control and efficient distribution, contributing to its pricing strategy [5][6]. - The company has a high percentage of self-produced raw materials (70%), which helps maintain lower costs compared to competitors [5][6]. Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2023, Mixue's revenue grew at a CAGR of 40.1%, with net profit increasing at a CAGR of 28.2%, driven primarily by store expansion [41][42]. - The company reported a gross margin of approximately 30% and a net margin of 19% in 2024, indicating stable profitability [41][42]. Expansion Plans - Mixue is actively expanding its international footprint, particularly in Southeast Asia, where it aims to increase its store count significantly [6][30]. - The company also launched a coffee brand, "Lucky Coffee," which is positioned to capture the lower-priced coffee market, further diversifying its product offerings [29][30].