Daqo Energy(688303) 华创证券·2025-03-04 10:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [3][22]. Core Views - The company's 2024 preliminary earnings report shows a significant decline in revenue and a shift to a net loss, with total revenue at 7.41 billion yuan, down 54.62% year-on-year, and a net profit of -2.72 billion yuan, marking a transition from profit to loss [3][5]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue drop of 59.26% year-on-year, with a net profit of -1.62 billion yuan, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [3][5]. - The report highlights that the company's profitability is at a cyclical low, primarily due to the oversupply in the photovoltaic industry leading to a decline in silicon material prices [3][9]. - The company has implemented measures to reduce cash consumption by lowering operational capacity to 40%-50% in Q4 2024, resulting in a decrease in cash costs to 35.19 yuan/kg [3][9]. - The report anticipates an improvement in industry supply and demand dynamics, with expectations for a recovery in prices as production rates increase in response to seasonal demand [3][9]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to have total revenues of 7.41 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 54.6%, and a net profit of -2.72 billion yuan, reflecting a 147.2% decrease [5][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -1.27 yuan in 2024, with a projected recovery to 0.37 yuan in 2025 and 0.58 yuan in 2026 [5][10]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be -17 in 2024, indicating a challenging earnings environment, with a recovery to 60 in 2025 and 38 in 2026 [5][10]. - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of -2.72 billion yuan, 788 million yuan, and 1.24 billion yuan respectively [3][9]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the silicon material sector, with expectations to benefit from industry recovery due to its product quality and cost advantages [3][9]. - The total market capitalization of the company is reported at 46.87 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 12.08 billion yuan [6].