Tianfeng Securities·2025-03-04 05:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - Alibaba reported FY25Q3 revenue of 280.2 billion CNY, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.0%. Adjusted EBITA was 54.9 billion CNY, surpassing expectations by 2.4%. Adjusted net profit reached 51.1 billion CNY, exceeding expectations by 10.7% [1]. - The company has significantly increased its capital expenditure (Capex) to 31.8 billion CNY in FY25Q3, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 106%. Over the next three years, Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion CNY in cloud computing and AI infrastructure, reflecting strong demand from both internal and external customers [1]. Summary by Sections Business Segments - Taobao Tmall Group: Revenue was 136.1 billion CNY, exceeding expectations by 3.3%. Adjusted EBITA was 61.1 billion CNY, surpassing expectations by 4.4%. Customer management revenue grew by 9% year-on-year, driven by online GMV growth and increased pricing [2]. - Cloud Intelligence Group: Revenue reached 31.7 billion CNY, exceeding expectations by 3.1%. Adjusted EBITA was 3.1 billion CNY, surpassing expectations by 10.9%. The overall revenue grew over 11% year-on-year, driven by double-digit growth in public cloud services [3]. - AIDC: Revenue was 37.8 billion CNY, with an adjusted EBITA loss of 5 billion CNY. Increased investments during the overseas shopping season led to higher losses [4]. - Other Businesses: Cainiao generated revenue of 28.2 billion CNY with an adjusted EBITA of 240 million CNY. Local life services revenue was 17 billion CNY, with an adjusted EBITA loss of 600 million CNY [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Alibaba from FY 2025 to FY 2027 are 992.9 billion CNY, 1,081.5 billion CNY, and 1,180.2 billion CNY respectively. The expected net profit for the same period is 147.1 billion CNY, 184.8 billion CNY, and 200.8 billion CNY respectively [5].