蜜雪集团：蜜雪冰城：供应链壁垒与下沉红利双轮驱动，全球化打开长期空间-20250305

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 317.80, based on projected earnings growth and valuation metrics [1][9]. Core Insights - The company, Mixue Group, is positioned as a leading player in the global ready-to-drink beverage market, achieving a revenue growth rate of 21.2% and a net profit growth rate of 45.2% in the first three quarters of 2024 [3][4]. - The company's rapid expansion is driven by a combination of supply chain advantages and a focus on lower-tier markets, with a significant portion of its stores located in third-tier cities and below [5][6]. - The ready-to-drink tea industry is experiencing robust growth, with a projected CAGR of 17.3% from 2023 to 2028, and Mixue holds a 20% market share, making it the largest player in the sector [4][54]. Company Overview - Mixue Group was founded in 1997 and has rapidly expanded to over 46,479 stores globally, achieving a market share of 19% by store count [3][20]. - The company operates primarily through a franchise model, with 45,282 franchise stores and only 20 company-owned stores as of September 2024 [30][36]. - The revenue structure is heavily weighted towards B2B sales, with 98% of revenue coming from product and equipment sales to franchisees [36]. Industry Growth - The ready-to-drink tea market in China is currently valued at approximately CNY 258.5 billion, with a projected growth to CNY 312.7 billion in 2024, reflecting a 21% year-on-year increase [52][54]. - The market for affordable ready-to-drink beverages is expanding rapidly, with a CAGR of 22.2% expected from 2023 to 2028, driven by increasing consumer demand in lower-tier cities [54][55]. Supply Chain and Business Model - Mixue's competitive advantage lies in its vertically integrated supply chain, which allows for cost control and efficient distribution, with 70% of raw materials sourced in-house [5][6]. - The company has established five production bases across China, ensuring a steady supply of key ingredients and maintaining lower procurement costs compared to competitors [5][6]. International Expansion - Mixue is actively expanding its presence in Southeast Asia, with 4,792 overseas stores as of September 2024, and plans to increase this number significantly in the coming years [6][30]. - The company is also leveraging its supply chain to support its coffee brand, Luckin Coffee, which is experiencing rapid growth in the affordable coffee segment [6][29].