锑行业专题报告：海内外价差或收敛，关注锑相关标的

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strong Outperforming the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Viewpoints - The convergence of domestic and international price differences for antimony is inevitable, as China is a net importer of antimony [8]. - The export control measures implemented by China have led to a temporary shortage of antimony overseas, resulting in a widening price gap between domestic and international markets [7]. - The demand for antimony is expected to remain strong, particularly driven by the photovoltaic sector and flame retardants, despite concerns over the real estate market [18][38]. - The overall supply of antimony is expected to remain stable, with a projected supply-demand gap of 1.9 million tons in 2024, increasing to 3.9 million tons by 2027 [45]. Summary by Sections Price Gap Convergence - The price gap between domestic and international antimony prices has widened significantly due to export controls, with current international prices around 400,000 CNY per ton and domestic prices at 150,000 CNY per ton, resulting in a gap of 250,000 CNY per ton [7]. - The price gap is expected to converge as domestic inventories are depleted and the need for imports increases [10]. Supply Constraints - Antimony reserves are limited, with China's share of global reserves decreasing from 52% in 2013 to 29% in 2023 [23]. - Domestic antimony production is projected to remain stable at around 60,000 tons per year, with no significant growth expected due to environmental regulations and rising costs [24]. - The potential for new overseas mining projects is limited, with Tajikistan being a key area for future production increases [28]. Demand Dynamics - The demand for antimony in traditional applications, particularly in flame retardants, remains strong, accounting for 43% of total demand [35]. - The photovoltaic sector is expected to drive significant demand growth, with a projected 28.68% increase in new installations in 2024 [39]. - The demand from lead-acid batteries is stable, with an estimated requirement of approximately 17,000 tons of antimony [42]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Huayu Mining, Hunan Gold, and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, which are well-positioned in the antimony market [50].