多邻国：收入增长强劲，利润率改善进度略显失望-20250305

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Duolingo (DUOL.US) with a target price of $380, indicating a potential upside of 29$295.23 [2][5][8] Core Insights - Duolingo reported strong revenue growth of 39% year-over-year in Q4 2024, reaching $210 million, which exceeded market expectations by 2$13.9 million fell short of market forecasts [8] - The company is optimistic about 2025, projecting nearly 30% revenue growth for the year, with strong user engagement metrics, including a 51% increase in Daily Active Users (DAU) to 40.5 million and a 32% increase in Monthly Active Users (MAU) to 117 million [8] - The introduction of Duolingo Max, which includes video call features, is expected to drive further growth, contributing to a 5% increase in subscription users [8] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for Duolingo are as follows: - FY23: $531 million - FY24:$748 million - FY25E: $976 million - FY26E:$1,242 million - FY27E: $1,556 million [3][9] - Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to improve from$94 million in FY23 to $544 million by FY27, with corresponding EBITDA margins increasing from 25$145.0 and $441.7, reflecting volatility in market sentiment [2][5]