全球市场观察2025.3.5

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index experienced a slight decline, with energy, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors falling, while materials, consumer staples, and information technology sectors rose[1] - A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with significant gains in semiconductor, robotics, military, and healthcare IT sectors, while coal, food, and liquor sectors declined[1] Trade War Impact - The U.S. imposed an additional 10% tariff on China, increasing risk aversion and expectations that tensions will accelerate China's tech self-sufficiency, with reports of guidance to promote the use of open-source chips[1] - The trade war is expected to weaken freight and commodity demand, leading to declines in shipping and fuel oil futures[1] European Market Reaction - European stocks fell sharply due to concerns over potential tariffs on the EU, particularly in the automotive and semiconductor sectors[1] - The trade war is anticipated to weaken Europe's economic growth outlook, with a drop in European bond yields and defensive sectors like food and utilities performing well[1] U.S. Market Trends - U.S. stocks continued to decline, particularly in industrial and consumer staples sectors sensitive to trade tensions and supply chain costs[1] - The market's expectation for a 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has expanded, although the New York Fed President indicated no immediate need for policy adjustment[1] Commodity Prices - Oil prices are on a downward trend due to weakened demand outlook from the trade war, OPEC+ production increase plans, and geopolitical developments involving Ukraine[1] - Trade tensions have boosted gold prices while negatively impacting copper prices due to a dimmed global economic outlook[1]