房地产行业报告:核心城市土拍市场回暖明显
China Post Securities·2025-03-05 10:51

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies in key cities reached 199.86 billion yuan in January-February 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.7% [5] - The sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies was 447.99 billion yuan in January-February 2025, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.9%, but the decline narrowed significantly compared to January [5] - The new housing sales in first-tier cities increased by 61.4% year-on-year and 64.2% month-on-month, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market in 2025 [5] Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Housing Transactions and Inventory - The new housing transaction area in 30 major cities last week was 2.3097 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 15.3549 million square meters for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [6] - The average transaction area in the last four weeks for first-tier cities was 477.1 thousand square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 61.4% and a month-on-month increase of 64.2% [6][15] - The available residential area in nine key cities was 55.1916 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 13.98% [18][20] Second-Hand Housing Transactions and Listings - The transaction area of second-hand housing in 12 key cities last week was 1.9672 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 14.3671 million square meters for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41.7% [22] - The average transaction area in the last four weeks for these cities was 1.5081 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 106.6% [22][24] Land Market Transactions - In the last week, 95 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities, with 49 plots successfully sold [26] - The average floor price for residential land transactions was 9,933.75 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 10.86% [26] Market Review - The A-share real estate index rose by 2.22%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 2.22%, resulting in a relative outperformance of 4.45 percentage points [29] - The Hong Kong property service and management index increased by 5.93%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index fell by 2.58%, indicating a strong performance in the property service sector [29][30]