Goldman Sachs·2025-03-05 04:33Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant vulnerability in Asian companies correlated with Nvidia, particularly in the technology and financial sectors, suggesting a cautious investment stance [3][10][14]. Core Insights - Nvidia experienced an 8.7% decline, marking its second drop of over 8% in three days, driven by tariff fears and potential export controls to China [3]. - A notable correlation exists between Nvidia and Bitcoin at 91.5%, indicating that liquidity plays a crucial role in price movements [4][5]. - The weakening price momentum of Nvidia suggests that equities must continue to rise to justify their positions in investment portfolios, especially in a high-yield bond environment [7]. - Asian companies with high correlations to Nvidia include TSMC (98%), Mediatek, Hon Hai, ASE, Softbank, and Hynix, indicating a concentrated risk in the tech sector [10][11]. - Financial institutions in Australia and China also show significant correlations with Nvidia, highlighting unexpected vulnerabilities in the financial sector [14][20]. Summary by Sections Correlation Analysis - The report highlights that over 35% of India's Nifty index has a correlation greater than 90% with Nvidia, affecting companies like ICICI Bank and State Bank of India [20]. - TSMC's correlation with Nvidia is particularly high at 98.2%, making it and the Taiwan Stock Exchange vulnerable to Nvidia's performance [11][25]. Market Positioning - Current positioning suggests that Nvidia bulls are facing a critical test, with potential declines leading to significant impacts on correlated stocks and indices [23][24]. - A drop in Nvidia's stock price to $100 could lead TSMC to fall towards $850, affecting the TWSE and indicating Taiwan's unique vulnerability [25][26].