全球大类资产观察：中国科技的东升？

Group 1: Global Asset Performance Review - Recent global risk assets have been affected by weak economic growth in the US and uncertainties surrounding tariffs, leading to a general decline, except for European stocks which performed relatively well due to low valuations and easing geopolitical tensions [8][9]. - Emerging markets have seen significant declines, particularly in Chinese assets, following a six-week rally [18]. - US Treasury yields have decreased as the market prices in pessimistic expectations of economic performance, with a focus on potential recession [9][67]. Group 2: Stock Market Analysis - The US stock market is experiencing a shift from the "American exceptionalism" narrative to concerns about whether the US will remain exceptional, with expectations of further declines if employment data weakens [10][21]. - European stocks are favored for their relative safety and low valuations, with funds reallocating from the US to Europe amid concerns about the US economic outlook [51]. - Indian stocks are under pressure due to slowing economic growth and high inflation, leading to a negative outlook for the near term [54]. Group 3: Bond Market Insights - US Treasury yields are expected to continue declining due to economic weakness and policy uncertainties, with a significant increase in the probability of rate cuts in the coming months [67]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower rates as economic data continues to show signs of weakness [67]. Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - Oil prices remain under pressure due to Trump's policies aimed at increasing production and easing geopolitical tensions, leading to a low volatility environment [74]. - Gold prices have seen fluctuations driven by tariff uncertainties and geopolitical developments, with potential for short-term adjustments [79]. - Copper prices are recovering slightly due to a weaker dollar and inflation expectations, although demand recovery remains uncertain [82]. Group 5: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar has been declining due to delayed tariff policies and concerns over economic slowdown, impacting its strength against other currencies [86]. - The Japanese yen is appreciating due to rising interest rates and improving economic fundamentals, supported by a favorable wage growth outlook [91]. - The Chinese yuan has seen slight appreciation, aided by a weaker dollar and improving domestic economic expectations [94].