ZD Leader(002896) 东吴证券·2025-03-05 12:23Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading enterprise in precision reducers and is expected to benefit significantly from the industrialization of humanoid robots [2][3] - The company has a strong focus on the production and R&D of reducers and motors, transitioning from single components to integrated electromechanical solutions [2][4] - The precision reducer market is projected to expand significantly due to the increasing demand for humanoid robots, with a forecasted market space for harmonic reducers reaching 751 billion yuan by 2027 [3][35] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established as a motor manufacturer in 1998, has expanded into the reducer sector and was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2017 [2][13] - It specializes in the production of reducers, reducer motors, and other core components, leveraging its leading R&D capabilities and quality control to create an integrated business platform [2][4] Market Opportunity - The global humanoid robot market is expected to see substantial growth, with projected demand reaching 1,165 million units by 2034, significantly increasing the demand for precision reducers [3][35] - Major international players like Tesla and domestic companies are actively developing humanoid robots, which will drive the expansion of the reducer market [3][31] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth, with projected revenues of 1,085.99 million yuan in 2023, followed by a decline to 965.39 million yuan in 2024, and then a recovery to 1,108.28 million yuan in 2025 [1][41] - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated at 0.73 billion yuan, 0.83 billion yuan, and 0.98 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 199, 175, and 149 [1][42] Product Development - The company is expanding its product offerings in the reducer sector, including planetary reducers, harmonic reducers, and RV reducers, which are essential components for humanoid robots [4][38] - A new production line for intelligent execution units and large RV reducers has been planned with an investment of 175 million yuan [4][39] Competitive Position - The company holds a strong competitive position in the precision reducer market, characterized by high technical barriers and a long history of R&D experience [4][43] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the trend of domestic substitution in the intelligent manufacturing sector [4][39]