2025年政府工作报告解读之消费行业：实施提振消费专项行动，推动消费提质升级

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the market over the next six months [5][14]. Core Insights - The core focus for 2025 is to boost consumption as a means to expand domestic demand, with a GDP growth target of around 5% [3][10]. - The government report emphasizes a progressive approach to consumption, moving from recovery and expansion in 2023 to quality upgrades in 2025, indicating a shift towards long-term high-quality development [3][10]. - Key measures include enhancing consumer capacity, increasing quality supply, and improving the consumption environment, with specific actions outlined for each area [4][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Enhancing Consumer Capacity - The goal for resident income growth is to align with economic growth, with a focus on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups to stimulate consumption [10]. - A special bond of 300 billion yuan is allocated to support the replacement of old consumer goods, aimed at boosting consumer confidence [10]. Increasing Quality Supply - The government aims to expand service consumption in areas such as health, elderly care, and childcare, reflecting the growing demand due to an aging population [10][11]. - New consumption models are encouraged, focusing on digital, green, and intelligent consumption, which are expected to reshape the consumption ecosystem [11]. - The tourism sector is anticipated to benefit from improved holiday policies, enhancing both domestic and inbound tourism [11]. Improving Consumption Environment - The report highlights the development of international consumption center cities to enhance consumption levels and create a new high ground for consumption upgrades [11]. - Strengthening the county-level commercial system is expected to invigorate local markets and unleash consumption potential [11]. Investment Opportunities - Focus on sectors such as food and beverage, particularly the liquor industry, which may face tax implications but also opportunities for high-end brands [12]. - The social services sector is positioned for growth, particularly in tourism and education, driven by favorable policies [12]. - The retail sector is advised to consider gold as a safe-haven asset amid global trade uncertainties, with a recommendation to focus on strong brands with high dividends [12].