银行视角看2025政府工作报告：宽财政加码，宽信用仍可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [8]. Core Insights - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, reflecting a commitment to stable growth amidst balancing risk prevention [8]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, with a total increase in broad fiscal measures by 2.9 trillion yuan year-on-year, including a deficit rate raised to 4% and an increase in local special bonds [8]. - Monetary policy will continue to adopt a moderately loose stance, with potential for timely adjustments in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates [8]. - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, which is likely to boost credit demand and investment [8]. - The report emphasizes the gradual resolution of risks in development, particularly in the real estate sector, which is expected to improve the banking sector's balance sheets [8]. - The banking sector is anticipated to benefit from increased fiscal support and improved asset quality, particularly in real estate and local government debt management [8]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The GDP growth target for 2025 is approximately 5%, consistent with the previous year [9]. - The inflation target is adjusted to 2%, aligning more closely with current realities [8]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will be more aggressive, with a total increase in broad fiscal measures by 2.9 trillion yuan year-on-year [8]. - The deficit rate is set to rise to 4%, with a total deficit scale increasing by 1.6 trillion yuan [8]. - Local special bonds are planned to be issued at 4.4 trillion yuan, with a focus on investment and debt resolution [8]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose tone, with potential for timely adjustments in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates [8]. - There is an emphasis on supporting key sectors, including real estate and small businesses, to promote healthy market development [8]. Banking Sector Implications - The banking sector is expected to see a significant impact from the implementation of stable growth policies, with fiscal measures supporting credit and economic expectations [8]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: high-dividend stocks and those with improved risk expectations [8].