宏观报告：2025年《政府工作报告》划重点

Economic Goals - The economic growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, aimed at stabilizing employment, preventing risks, and improving livelihoods[4] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate is targeted at approximately 5.5%, reflecting the need for increased employment stability[4] - The consumer price index (CPI) growth is aimed at around 2%, indicating a focus on maintaining price stability[4] Inflation and Policy Adjustments - The CPI target has been lowered from 3% to 2%, marking the first time since 2004 that the target is below 3%[7] - This adjustment is seen as a more pragmatic approach to address inflationary pressures, with a stronger emphasis on realistic targets[8] - The government acknowledges significant downward pressure on prices, which could lead to higher real interest rates and increased debt burdens[8] Investment and Fiscal Policy - There is a new focus on "investing in people" to drive economic cycles, emphasizing public service improvements and job creation[11] - Local government finances are expected to expand again, with a focus on supporting new investment opportunities while managing debt risks[13] - The issuance of special bonds is planned, with a total of 1.8 trillion yuan, including 1.3 trillion yuan for long-term bonds and 500 billion yuan for bank capital[16] Real Estate and Consumption - Real estate policies will shift towards "protecting the main body," focusing on preventing corporate debt defaults while stabilizing the market[14] - Promoting consumption remains a key strategy, with a special bond allocation of 300 billion yuan aimed at boosting consumer spending through trade-in programs[16] - The government aims to enhance domestic demand, particularly in consumption, to serve as a primary driver of economic growth[15] Financial Market Stability - There is an emphasis on optimizing and innovating structural monetary policy tools to support healthy development in the real estate and stock markets[19] - The government plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential adjustments to interest rates and reserve requirements as needed[17]