2025年政府工作报告简评：稳中求进，科技当先

Economic Framework - The government work report maintains a "steady progress" tone, emphasizing proactive and effective policies for 2025[1] - The fiscal deficit rate is set at 4%, with an increase in fiscal funds to CNY 2.9 trillion, reflecting significant policy commitment[1][10] - The GDP growth target is set at around 5%, consistent with previous years, indicating a focus on medium to long-term economic stability[9] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit scale reaches CNY 5.66 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 39.4%, with a broad deficit rate of 9.3%[10] - Special bonds amount to CNY 4.4 trillion, aimed at infrastructure and local government support[11] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated in Q2 2025[12] - The report emphasizes aligning social financing and money supply growth with economic growth and inflation expectations[12] Technology and Innovation - The focus on technology policy includes support for AI, 6G, and quantum technology, with an emphasis on large-scale application demonstrations[14] - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative aims to enhance the application of AI across various sectors, driving demand in hardware and software[14] Consumption and Demand - Policies to boost consumption include a doubling of the "trade-in" program to CNY 300 billion, targeting the automotive and home appliance sectors[15] - Income mechanisms are being improved to enhance consumer spending capacity, with a focus on service consumption as a new growth point[15] Risk Management - The report highlights a strategy to gradually resolve risks while promoting development, particularly in the real estate sector[16] - Local government debt management will prioritize development over debt reduction, facilitating economic activity recovery[16]