行业月报（2025年1月）：重卡：1月销量同环比下滑，2025年有望受益政策拉动

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - In January 2025, heavy truck sales were approximately 70,000 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 27.8% and a month-on-month decline of 16.9% [1][7] - The "old-for-new" policy will continue and be strengthened in 2025, which is expected to significantly boost the replacement demand for National IV vehicles, supporting the overall heavy truck market [2][10] - The macroeconomic indicators are stabilizing, but market demand remains challenging due to a PMI drop near the threshold line [2][10] Summary by Sections Heavy Truck Industry Overview - January 2025 heavy truck sales were about 70,000 units, with both year-on-year and month-on-month declines [7] - The sales of natural gas heavy trucks in January reached 7,676 units, with a year-on-year increase of 20.5% [15] - New energy heavy truck sales were 7,085 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 96% [22] Investment Recommendations - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to drive significant growth in heavy truck sales in 2025, with an estimated 10,000 additional heavy truck sales from the replacement of 20% of National IV vehicles [3][30] - The heavy truck sector is seen as having both stable dividends and growth potential, with high dividend yields for companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [3][30] Market Competition - The heavy truck market is highly concentrated, with China National Heavy Duty Truck Group leading with a market share of 27% [13][14] - In the natural gas heavy truck segment, the market share of the top five companies is 95.77%, indicating a high level of concentration [17][21] - For new energy heavy trucks, the market share of the top five brands is 63.21%, which is lower than that of natural gas and overall heavy trucks [26]