2025年全国“两会”解读：稳中促新，“抓手”与“后手”

Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, balancing needs and possibilities, with a focus on innovation and stability[8] - The weighted average GDP growth target for local governments in 2025 is approximately 5.34%, down from 5.65% in 2024[10] - Employment targets remain stable, with urban job creation set at over 12 million, and the urban unemployment rate targeted at around 5.5%[12] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is planned at around 4%, exceeding the previous 3% threshold, marking a historical high[18] - Total new government debt issuance for 2025 is projected at 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year[18] - Special bonds for local governments will increase to approximately 4.4 trillion yuan, up by 500 billion yuan from 2024[19] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with a focus on supporting the real estate market, stock market, and consumption[9] - Structural monetary policy tools will be optimized to promote healthy development in key sectors, including technology and green development[9] Industry Highlights and Investment Opportunities - Emphasis on innovation in consumption scenarios, with the "first launch economy" expected to benefit from policy support[9] - Continued promotion of AI initiatives, focusing on sectors like smart vehicles, AI in healthcare, and education[9] - Deepening of state-owned enterprise mergers and restructuring, with a focus on strategic sectors such as technology and energy[9]