全球视角的黄金消费深度分析-深度研究：中国和印度为何偏爱黄金？

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the gold jewelry industry starting from Q2 2025, indicating a potential recovery due to low base effects and strong brand positioning in the market [4]. Core Insights - Global gold demand is projected to increase from 4,406 tons in 2012 to 4,554 tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 1.6% [4][8]. - China and India together account for over 50% of global gold consumption, with their combined demand expected to remain robust despite fluctuations in gold prices [4][39]. - The jewelry segment constitutes 44% of global gold demand in 2024, while investment in gold bars and coins accounts for 26% [4][12]. Summary by Sections Global Gold Demand Overview - Global gold demand has remained stable, with a slight increase expected in 2024 driven by central bank purchases and investment demand [8][12]. - The jewelry segment has consistently held the highest share of gold demand, remaining above 40% since 2022 [12][15]. Country and Region-Specific Gold Demand - In 2024, China and India are projected to consume 27% and 26% of global gold, respectively, with a notable increase in gold jewelry consumption in both markets [39][42]. - The demand for gold jewelry in China and India has risen significantly, with their combined share reaching nearly 60% since 2021 [4][42]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in established jewelry brands such as Lao Feng Xiang, Chao Hong Ji, and Chow Tai Fook, which are expected to benefit from strong brand loyalty and market stability [4]. Gold Supply Overview - Global gold supply is expected to reach 4,974.5 tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.58%, primarily driven by an increase in recycled gold production [25][28]. - The share of recycled gold in total supply has increased significantly due to rising gold prices, with a projected 1,370 tons of recycled gold in 2024, reflecting an 11% increase [34][31].