天风证券：晨会集萃-20250306

Group 1 - The government work report for 2025 proposes a more proactive fiscal policy, with a deficit rate set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan from last year [2][24] - The report emphasizes "appropriate monetary easing," continuing the previous year's stance, and highlights the need for timely adjustments in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates to maintain ample liquidity [2][25] - In the real estate sector, the report aims to stabilize the market and prevent debt defaults among property companies, indicating a focus on maintaining housing market stability [2][26] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of new technologies in the photovoltaic industry, particularly in addressing the current challenges of slowing demand and oversupply, with a focus on BC and HJT technologies for 2025 [3] - Supply-side reforms are expected to be a major investment theme in the photovoltaic sector, with global demand growth projected at around 10% in 2025, significantly slower than in 2024 [3] - Companies with established positions in the Asia-Pacific and Latin American markets are recommended for investment, as they are likely to benefit from the growing demand in these regions [3] Group 3 - The report indicates a significant increase in AI capital expenditure, with the U.S. government planning to invest $500 billion in AI infrastructure, and China expected to invest at least 500 billion yuan in AIDC over the next three years [4] - The demand for backup power systems driven by AIDC is projected to double, with a significant need for diesel generators in smart computing centers, indicating a robust growth opportunity for domestic manufacturers [4] - The report suggests focusing on domestic OEM manufacturers with pricing power and those linked to leading generator sets, as they are expected to benefit from the increasing demand [4][8] Group 4 - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a price increase for NAND storage, driven by rising demand from the smartphone and PC industries, with expectations for continued price hikes into the second quarter [10][40] - The AI industry's explosive growth is significantly increasing the demand for storage and computing power, particularly for large language models, which require advanced storage systems [10][40] - The report identifies photon chips as a promising solution for enhancing computing capabilities, addressing performance and energy consumption challenges in traditional electronic systems [10][41]