Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of China Oriental Education to "Buy" [1][5][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high-quality growth in revenue and profit margins over the next three years, driven by refined operational strategies and market-oriented training systems [3][5][10]. - The average training participants are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 165,000 participants by 2026 [5][10][11]. - Revenue is anticipated to increase to 4.08 billion, 4.38 billion, and 4.69 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of 5.6% during the same period [5][10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Refined Operational Strategy - The company has reduced the number of its teaching centers to 234, optimizing capacity utilization from 72.2% in 2023 to 75.9% in 2024, and further to 79.8% by 2026 [4][19][29]. - Marketing efficiency is expected to improve, with the marketing expense ratio decreasing from approximately 26.1% in 2023 to 23.8% in 2024, and further to 22.9% by 2026 [4][11][46]. 2. Expanding Market for High School and College Graduates - The company is developing mid-cycle courses of 15 months to 1.5 years to cater to the training needs of high school and college graduates, which is expected to enhance enrollment [51][52]. - The introduction of the Oumandi brand in the beauty and wellness training sector is projected to achieve 11,500 training participants by 2026, contributing 470 million yuan to total revenue, accounting for 10% [5][59]. 3. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at 4.08 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits expected to reach 488 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [6][10]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 12% in 2024 to 14.8% by 2026, driven by scale effects and cost control measures [5][10][11].
中国东方教育：精细化运营带动效益提升，市场导向型培训体系开发助力长期发展-20250306