Sea Ltd ADR：2024Q4点评：收入利润表现亮眼，电商持续快速增长-20250306

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][5][14] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q4 2024 reached $5 billion, representing a 37% year-over-year growth, primarily driven by e-commerce and digital financial services [1][8] - The net profit for the quarter was$ 2.4 million, with a net profit margin of 5% [1][8] - The adjusted EBITDA margins for e-commerce, gaming, and digital financial services were 4%, 56%, and 29% respectively, showing significant improvement compared to the previous year [1][8] E-commerce Business Summary - E-commerce revenue for Q4 2024 was $3.7 billion, up 41% year-over-year, attributed to a 24% increase in GMV and improved monetization rates [1][9] - The platform's monetization rate increased from 9.8% to 11.2% year-over-year, mainly driven by advertising monetization [1][9] - The company projects a 20% growth in e-commerce GMV for 2025, with continued improvement in profitability [1][9] Digital Financial Services Summary - Digital financial services generated$ 730 million in revenue for Q4 2024, a 55% increase year-over-year, mainly driven by credit services [2][13] - The adjusted EBITDA for this segment was $210 million, with a profit margin of 29% [2][13] - As of December 31, 2024, total receivables amounted to$ 5.1 billion, a 64% increase year-over-year, with a non-performing loan rate of 1.2% [2][13] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to $20.2 billion and$ 23.5 billion, respectively, reflecting a 6% and 9% increase [3][14] - The adjusted profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are $1.5 billion and$ 2.3 billion, with increases of 21% and 24% [3][14] - The target price has been revised to $150-$ 154, indicating an upside potential of 13%-16% [3][14]