SUN PAPER(002078) 申万宏源·2025-03-07 01:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 40.739 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.0%. The Q4 revenue was 9.764 billion yuan, down 5.6% year-on-year, primarily due to pressure on pulp prices. The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 3.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [6][7] - The company is expected to see sequential improvement in H1 2025, driven by a recovery in cultural paper prices and a favorable demand environment [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (million yuan): - 2023: 39,544 - 2024E: 40,739 - 2025E: 43,591 - 2026E: 49,729 - Year-on-year growth rate (%): - 2024E: 3.0% - 2025E: 7.0% - 2026E: 14.1% - Net profit attributable to the parent company (million yuan): - 2024E: 3,126 - 2025E: 3,537 - 2026E: 4,164 - Earnings per share (yuan/share): - 2024E: 1.12 - 2025E: 1.27 - 2026E: 1.49 - Gross margin (%): - 2024E: 16.8% - 2025E: 16.7% - 2026E: 16.5% - Return on equity (ROE %): - 2024E: 11.0% - 2025E: 11.5% - 2026E: 12.3% [2][6][7] Market Data - Closing price (yuan): 14.32 - Market capitalization (million yuan): 39,742 - Price-to-earnings ratio (PE): - 2024E: 13 - 2025E: 11 - 2026E: 10 - Dividend yield (%): 2.09 [3][6] Company Strategy and Outlook - The company is advancing its integrated forestry-pulp-paper strategy, with plans to increase plantation areas in Laos and expand production capacity in various locations, which is expected to support future growth [7] - The diversified product portfolio is designed to mitigate cyclical disruptions, and the company is positioned to benefit from cost advantages and operational optimizations in its production processes [7]