2025年政府工作报告解读：多维突破稳增长

Economic Growth Target - The economic growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, consistent with the 2024 target, reflecting market expectations amid a complex external environment[6] - Achieving this target is challenging due to the unstable recovery foundation domestically and increasing external pressures[6] Consumer Price Index (CPI) - The CPI target for 2025 is adjusted to around 2%, marking the first downward adjustment in nearly a decade, from 3% in 2024[7] - This adjustment aims to enhance policy credibility and align market expectations with achievable price levels[7] Total Policy Framework - The government emphasizes a proactive approach in total policy, advocating for early and sufficient policy implementation to counter uncertainties[9] - The report includes a focus on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, reflecting a commitment to maintaining social expectations and preventing systemic risks[10] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy tone shifts to "more proactive," with a total new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan, resulting in a broad deficit ratio of 8.4%, up by 1.8 percentage points from 2024[11] - The deficit target for 2025 is set at 4%, breaking the implicit 3% constraint, with a significant increase in infrastructure and social spending[13] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with expectations for preemptive actions to address external shocks and domestic growth pressures[15] - The government plans to maintain liquidity and align monetary supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations[16] Consumption Promotion - Consumption is prioritized in the 2025 report, with initiatives to enhance consumer capacity and diversify service supply in health, elderly care, and digital sectors[19] - A special bond of 300 billion yuan is allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods, aiming to stimulate demand[20] Technological Innovation - The report emphasizes high-level self-reliance in technology, listing new focus areas such as embodied intelligence, 6G, and artificial intelligence[23] - The strategy aims to strengthen the innovation ecosystem through improved education and talent cultivation[23]