乙烯期货|专题报告 能源化工|专题报告 乙烯专题报告 2026 年 2 月 3 日 从业资格证号：F03120816 投资咨询号：Z0022960 全球乙烯产能格局调整，中国优势凸显 国联期货研究所 研究所 交易咨询业务资格编号 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师： 王军龙 截至 2025 年，全球乙烯年产能已突破 2.3 亿吨。分区域来看，美洲受 乙烷供应增速回落、乙烯需求走弱影响，乙烷裂解项目投产节奏显著放 缓；中东面临乙烷资源约束，产能扩张受限；欧洲则面临乙烯生产成本高 企、终端需求乏力的双重压力；亚洲将成为全球乙烯产能增量的核心贡献 区域。 相关研究报告： 《乙烯专题报告（一）： 乙烯产业链概述》 欧洲、日韩关停乙烯产能，核心源于原料成本高企、全球产能过剩下 的竞争劣势，叠加区域自身产业与市场的结构性问题。欧洲、日韩乙烯产 能关停后，中国或凭借多重优势成为全球核心受益方与供应主体。中国乙 烯产能规模全球领先，炼化一体化装置具备规模效应，原料路线多元化且 成本远低于欧日韩单一石脑油路线，相关产品出口空间有望进一步打开。 请阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 融通社会财富·创造多元价值 - 1 - 摘要 | ...

能源化工|月度报告 能源化工研究团队 需求季节性变动，价格波动加剧 国联期货研究所 聚酯产业链月度报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 交易咨询业务资格编号 贾万敬 从业资格号：F03086791 投资咨询号：Z0016549 工率偏低，产业需求回升缓 慢》2025.08.29 格或前低后高》2025.09.29 2025.10.30 展望 《聚酯产业链 2026 年展望： 供需形势将逐步好转，低价 格 低 利 润 有 望 修 复 》 1 月，国际油价从低位小幅反弹，上涨过程持续性不强。预计，2 月原油市 场基本面变化不大，一季度 OPEC+暂停增产，严寒天气对油价的支撑作用依然 会延续。不过，国际油价和 PX、PTA 的走势关联性在短期较弱，主要受聚酯产 业链供需变动的影响。 《聚酯产业链专题报告：产 能扩张高峰已过，供需关系 将好转》2025.11.27 2025.12.12 格仍将偏强运行》2026.01.09 OPEC+产量政策或维持 国际油价温和反弹 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师： 2026 年 1 月初的 OPEC+会议维持一季度暂停增产原油的政策，预计 2 月 1 日的 OPEC+会 ...

量化金工|专题报告 2025 年四季度公募基金股指期货持仓分析报告 | 国联期货研究所 | 摘 要 | | --- | --- | | 号 证监许可[2011]1773 | 截至 2025 年四季度末，公募基金共持有股指期货总持仓连续增长 2 个 | | | 季度后开始有所回落，具体而言，多头持仓 24202 手，环比下降 6.97%，持 | | | 仓市值 325.69 亿，环比下降 4.92%；空头持仓 5651 手，环比减少 12.78%， | | | 持仓市值 81.38 亿，环比下降 12.75%。 | | 分析师： | 净多头持仓 18551 手，较上季末减少 987 手，净多头市值 244.3 亿元， | | 黎伟 | 较上季度末减少 4.96 亿元。多头减仓主要集中在 IH 和 IF 合约，减仓手数 | | 从业资格证号：F0300172 | 分别环比下降 5.1%和 28.02%；空头减仓主要在 IM 合约，环比下降 13.4%， | | 投资咨询证书号：Z0011568 | 显示公募基金在未来整体更看好中小盘类指数，而对大盘类指数更显谨慎。 | | | 各产品参与数量上,参与产品数量 43 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - The U.S. has postponed imposing tariffs on critical mineral imports, and Shanghai copper prices have weakened [1] 2. Key Points by Category Price Data - After the contract change of Shanghai copper, the copper spot has turned to a discount, and the spot market trading is sluggish [9] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium continued to strengthen on a week - on - week basis [13] Fundamental Data - The average weekly price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $1.12/ton to -$46.53/ton on a week - on - week basis and remained low [15] - According to Steel Union, the port inventory of copper concentrate this week was 54.7 million tons, an increase of 11.9 million tons on a week - on - week basis and lower on a year - on - year basis [18] - The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in January is expected to decrease on a month - on - month basis but increase on a year - on - year basis [23] - From January to December, the cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 5.321 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [26] - This week, the spot and bonded area inventories of electrolytic copper increased on a week - on - week basis [27] - LME copper inventories have increased, and COMEX copper inventories continue to accumulate [29] - Driven by post - holiday复产, the operating rate of refined copper rods rebounded this week [30] - From January 1st to 11th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 38% on a year - on - year basis [31] - The overall production schedule of photovoltaic modules in January is expected to decline; the export tax refund for photovoltaic value - added tax will be cancelled starting from April [32] - The production schedules of household air conditioners in January and February are differentiated, with the cumulative production basically flat [34] Macroeconomic Data - The central bank has lowered the policy tool interest rate by 25 basis points and stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [36] - The core CPI growth rate in the U.S. in December was lower than expected, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, and the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations [38] - The front - runner for the Federal Reserve Chairman position has changed, and Trump has said that he hopes Hassett will continue to serve as a White House advisor [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The geopolitical disturbances are intensifying, there are concerns about resource security, and the Shanghai copper market remains strong [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Impact Factor Analysis - **Macro (Positive)**: In 2026, the central bank will increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts, and flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The US president is discussing a plan to acquire Greenland, including military options, and has instructed the purchase of $200 billion in US mortgage - backed bonds. China's December CPI year - on - year increase reached a 34 - month high, and PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months. The US added 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, falling short of expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The January Michigan consumer confidence index reached a four - month high [6]. - **Demand (Negative)**: Affected by holidays and high prices, the operating rate of refined copper rods continued to be under pressure, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The transaction area of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities last week decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production plan of household air conditioners in January increased by 11% compared with last year's actual performance, but the production plans in January and February were different due to the Spring Festival, with the cumulative production basically flat. The retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market from December 1st to 31st increased by 7% year - on - year. The overall production plan of photovoltaic modules in January is expected to decline significantly, and the export tax rebate for photovoltaic value - added tax will be cancelled starting from April [6]. - **Supply (Neutral)**: According to Steel Union, the port inventory of copper concentrates this week was 428,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,000 tons and at a low level compared with the same period last year. Codelco's copper production in 2025 was 1.332 million tons, a slight increase compared with 2024. Rio Tinto and Glencore are conducting preliminary consultations on a potential business merger. According to SMM, the domestic electrolytic copper production in December increased by 6.8% month - on - month and 7.54% year - on - year, mainly due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled smelters and the increase in the production of scrap - produced anode copper. The electrolytic copper production in January is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [6]. - **Inventory (Negative)**: This week, the spot and bonded - area inventories of electrolytic copper increased month - on - month. LME copper stocks decreased, while COMEX copper stocks increased. According to Steel Union, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper on Thursday was 284,700 tons, an increase of 13,300 tons compared with Monday and 37,600 tons compared with last Thursday; the bonded - area inventory was 115,200 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared with Monday and 6,800 tons compared with last Thursday. The LME copper inventory on Friday was 138,975 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,350 tons; the COMEX copper inventory on Friday was 517,999 short tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,158 short tons [6]. - **Specific Production (Neutral)**: On Friday, the spot premiums and discounts of premium copper, flat - grade copper, and wet - process copper were 30, - 80, and - 175 yuan/ton respectively. Due to the high price level and weak spot copper transactions, the premiums and discounts were under pressure. The spread between the February and March contracts of Shanghai copper closed at - 170 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, continuing to be under pressure. The LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened slightly week - on - week [6]. 3.2 Price Data - The high price level led to weak spot copper transactions, and the premiums and discounts were under pressure [11]. - The LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened slightly week - on - week [13]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index this week decreased by $0.43/ton month - on - month to - $45.41/ton, still at a low level [15]. - The port inventory of copper concentrates this week was 428,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,000 tons and at a low level compared with the same period last year [18]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper strengthened [20]. - The domestic electrolytic copper production in December increased by 6.8% month - on - month and 7.54% year - on - year, and the production in January is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [23]. - In November, China imported 269,200 tons of refined copper, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%, and exported 143,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.8% [26]. - This week, the spot and bonded - area inventories of electrolytic copper increased month - on - month, LME copper stocks decreased, and COMEX copper stocks increased [27][28]. - Affected by holidays and high prices, the operating rate of refined copper rods continued to be under pressure, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year declines [31]. - The retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market from December 1st to 31st increased by 7% year - on - year [32]. - The overall production plan of photovoltaic modules in January is expected to decline, and the export tax rebate for photovoltaic value - added tax will be cancelled starting from April [33]. - The production plans of household air conditioners in January and February were different due to the Spring Festival, with the cumulative production basically flat [35]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - China's RatingDog service industry PMI in December was 52, remaining in the expansion range, but new export orders fell back into contraction [37]. - The US January Michigan consumer confidence index reached a four - month high, and inflation expectations were relatively stable [40]. - "New Fed Wire" said that the December non - farm employment data paved the way for maintaining the status quo, and traders expect it is almost impossible to make a change in January [41].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, OPEC+ suspends crude oil production increase, and demand is in the peak season, so international oil prices are expected to strengthen. However, if production increase resumes, it will still suppress oil prices. The market is at an important node, and future oil price fluctuations are expected to widen [4][55][127] - In the polyester industry chain, demand will decline due to the Spring Festival in Q1 2026, and the operating rates of polyester and looms will first decrease and then increase. PTA and ethylene glycol have inventory accumulation pressure, and the inventory accumulation rate is mainly affected by the operating rate. The price decline in Q1 is considered a buying opportunity, and the weak ethylene glycol price in 2025 is also expected to strengthen [10][82][127] - Currently, the profits in the entire industry chain are mainly concentrated in the PX segment, and the profit situation of polyester products is generally poor. This situation is expected to continue in Q1 2026, and the closer to the downstream, the greater the pressure on profit decline during the demand decline [128] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In Q4 2025, the prices of PX and PTA first fell and then rose, and finally increased slightly for the whole year. Ethylene glycol prices showed a continuous downward trend, with a significant decline in December. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices first fell and then rose, but still declined for the whole year [16] - PX: In Q4 2025, the supply and demand situation was not good, but the price increased due to the tight supply and continuous inventory reduction of PTA. The operating rate was high, with little room for further improvement [17] - PTA: Since H2 2025, the operating rate has been lower than the previous year, especially in Q4. In November, many devices were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in production and inventory. The price increased significantly in December, and the futures price increased by about 4.6% for the whole year [20][21][22] - MEG: In 2025, new production capacity was put into operation, and the operating rate increased, resulting in a significant increase in supply. In Q4, the supply was loose, and the price continued to fall, with an annual decline of more than 20% [24][27] - Short - fiber: There was no new device put into operation in the past two years. In Q4, the operating rate was generally stable, and the output increased year - on - year. The domestic consumption demand was weak, and the price first fell and then rose, with an annual decline of 4.6% [29][30] - Bottle - chip: In 2025, the production capacity expansion slowed down, but there was still supply pressure. The operating rate continued to decline, but the cumulative output increased by 7% year - on - year. The export volume increased significantly, but the domestic demand growth was limited, and the price fell by 2.3% for the whole year [31][33][36] II. OPEC+ Suspends Crude Oil Production Increase in Q1, but the Expectation of Supply Glut Remains - Geopolitical conflicts occur frequently, but the expectation of interfering with crude oil production is not strong. In 2025, OPEC+ changed from production cut to production increase, and decided to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. However, there is still a possibility of resuming production increase in 2026, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in March [37] - The EIA continuously raised the global crude oil supply forecast in 2025, while the demand adjustment was relatively small. The global crude oil supply became looser, and the supply glut increased in 2025 and 2026 [37][38][40] - In Q1, the heating oil demand is strong, which supports the refinery operating rate. The international oil price is near the low point in recent years, and the current is an important node for oil price fluctuations, with expected wider future fluctuations [45] III. Spring Maintenance in Q1, the Operating Rate of Some Links Will Change Significantly - There is no new device production plan for PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol in Q1 2026. The PX operating rate is expected to decline significantly due to the spring maintenance, while the impact on the PTA operating rate is expected to be small [56] - Ethylene glycol has many new device production plans in 2026, but there is no plan in Q1. The production profit is poor, and the domestic output may decline [70][73][80] IV. Demand is Affected by Seasonal Factors, and the Polyester Operating Rate Will First Decrease and Then Increase - In Q1, the demand will fluctuate greatly and decline overall due to the Spring Festival. The polyester operating rate will first decrease and then increase, and the output is expected to decline significantly [82][85] - Affected by the decline in demand for polyester raw materials, the inventory will increase. PTA and ethylene glycol have inventory accumulation pressure, but the negative impact of ethylene glycol inventory accumulation on price in Q1 is expected to weaken [92][95] - The profits of polyester products are generally poor and difficult to improve in Q1. The profits of long - filament and short - fiber are under greater downward pressure, especially during the demand decline [96][98][100] - The long - filament inventory has pressure to increase rapidly in Q1, while the short - fiber inventory pressure is relatively small before the new device is put into operation [107][109] - The operating rate of looms will fluctuate greatly in Q1, and the average operating rate is expected to be higher than that in 2025. The output of yarn and grey cloth is generally low, and the inventory change is relatively small [110][112][113] V. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Keeps Growing, and the Export Market is Expected to Recover - The growth rate of domestic textile and apparel demand is not high and will maintain a low - growth trend. The growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales is low, and the growth rate of textile and apparel retail sales fluctuates [115][118] - The global economic and trade relations have eased, which is beneficial to the recovery of textile and apparel exports. Although China's textile and apparel exports declined in 2025, they are expected to recover in 2026 [119][120][121] VI. Summary and Outlook - Summary: In Q4 2025, international oil prices continued to be weak, and the polyester industry chain (except ethylene glycol) first fell and then rebounded. The supply - demand contradictions in some links of the polyester industry chain were prominent, and the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol diverged significantly. The profits in the industry chain were concentrated in the PX segment [123][124][126] - Outlook: In Q1 2026, international oil prices are expected to strengthen, and the demand in the polyester industry chain will decline due to the Spring Festival. The price decline is considered a buying opportunity, and the ethylene glycol price is expected to strengthen. The current profit situation in the industry chain is expected to continue, and the closer to the downstream, the greater the profit decline pressure [127][128]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Ethylene is the most important basic organic raw material in the chemical industry, known as the "mother of the petrochemical industry." Its production capacity, process routes, and downstream structure reflect a country's petrochemical development level [4]. - Ethylene production is mainly through steam cracking, with different raw materials leading to different process routes. Downstream applications are extensive, mainly in polyethylene, ethylene glycol, styrene, and PVC, and the demand is closely related to the macro - economy and industry cycles [4][5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Ethylene Basics - **Definition**: Ethylene is the simplest olefin with the formula C₂H₄ and structure CH₂ = CH₂. It is an important chemical raw material and a natural plant - ripening hormone [8]. - **Physical and Chemical Properties** - **Physical Properties**: Colorless, slightly sweet - smelling gas at normal temperature and pressure; has a low melting point of - 169.2°C and a boiling point of - 103.7°C; less dense than air; difficult to dissolve in water but easy in organic solvents; highly volatile and flammable, with an explosion limit of 2.7% - 36.0% [10][11][15][16]. - **Chemical Properties**: Chemically active due to the C = C double - bond, mainly showing addition, oxidation, and polymerization reactions [17]. - **Storage and Transportation** - **Storage**: Commonly stored in low - temperature liquid form using double - layer or full - containment cryogenic storage tanks at about - 104°C; can also be stored in pressurized gaseous form in steel pressure vessels or spherical tanks [25][26]. - **Transportation**: Mainly transported by pipeline in large - scale plants and chemical parks; for long - distance or international transport, it is usually in low - temperature liquid form; high - pressure gaseous transport is used for short - distance and small - batch transport [27][29][30]. II. Ethylene Industry Chain - **Production Process** - **Mainstream Process: Hydrocarbon Steam Cracking**: Accounts for over 90% of global ethylene production. Raw materials include light (ethane, propane, butane), medium (naphtha), and heavy (AGO, VGO) types. The process involves raw material pre - treatment, cracking reaction, quenching and heat recovery, compression and purification, and low - temperature distillation separation [35][36][38]. - **Auxiliary Processes**: Catalytic cracking has a lower reaction temperature and is suitable for high - propylene demand scenarios; methanol - to - olefins (MTO) does not depend on petroleum resources and is suitable for areas rich in coal and natural gas [46][47]. - **Global Ethylene Production Process Pattern and Characteristics** - **Global Pattern**: In 2025, ethane cracking accounted for 39.27% and naphtha cracking 36.86%, together over 75%. Other processes play a supplementary role [51]. - **Trends**: The global ethylene process shows a trend of increasing light - hydrocarbon use, decreasing heavy - raw material use, and coexistence of multiple routes. There are significant regional differences based on resource endowments [57]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Polyethylene**: Consumes over 50% of ethylene, including LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE, with different production processes and applications [68]. - **Styrene**: Produced mainly by ethylbenzene dehydrogenation. It is mainly used in synthetic polymers and rubbers, and its demand is sensitive to the manufacturing industry cycle [71]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Produced by ethylene oxidation - hydration globally, and coal - based process is developed in China. Over 80% is used in the polyester industry [74]. - **Ethylene Oxide**: Produced by direct ethylene oxidation. It is mainly used to produce ethylene glycol and is also used in other fields [77]. - **PVC**: Produced by ethylene and calcium carbide methods, with products used in hard and soft goods [78]. - **EVA**: Produced by copolymerizing ethylene and vinyl acetate. Low - VA EVA is used in foaming materials, and high - VA EVA is used in photovoltaic encapsulation films, etc. [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper spot demand is under pressure, the macro - expectation is upward, and there are constraints on copper mine supply [1] - The copper futures market shows a strong performance, while the spot demand is weak, and the discount is widening [10] 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - On December 24, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened compared to the previous Friday [12] - The copper market shows a situation of strong futures and weak spot demand with an expanding discount [10] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $1.25 per ton week - on - week to - $44.9 per ton, remaining at a low level [14] - According to Steel Union, the port inventory of copper concentrate this week was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week and lower compared to the same period last year [17] - The refined - scrap copper price difference strengthened week - on - week [19] - The estimated domestic electrolytic copper production in December will increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year [21] - In November, China imported 269,200 tons of refined copper, a decrease of 3.8% month - on - month, and exported 143,000 tons, an increase of 116.8% month - on - month [22] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to increase week - on - week, while the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly [23] - LME copper continued to destock, while COMEX copper continued to accumulate inventory [24] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased week - on - week and is expected to remain under pressure next week [26] - From December 1st to 21st, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China increased by 1% year - on - year and 3% compared to the same period last month [28] - The overall production schedule of photovoltaic modules in January is expected to decline significantly [31] - The planned production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in January increased by 6% compared to the actual production volume of the same period last year, with household air conditioners increasing by 11% [33] Macroeconomic Data - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months [37] - The US GDP in the third quarter exceeded expectations, with the core PCE increasing by 2.9% [39] - The US labor market is recovering, with the ADP weekly average private employment showing positive growth for three consecutive weeks [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - expectation is positive for copper as the Fed's rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals, domestic policy expectations are rising, and major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Fundamentally, global copper mine supply is restricted, and the growth rate of refined copper production is expected to slow down. Although the domestic demand growth rate may slow down, there will still be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market in 2026. Therefore, the Shanghai copper market is expected to continue an upward trend, and a long - position approach is recommended [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro - The US inflation is slowing down, the labor market is weakening, and the rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals. In November, the US CPI slowed to 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI slowed to 2.6% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and launched a short - term Treasury purchase plan of about $40 billion per month [7][8] - In China, fixed - asset investment is slowing down, and policy expectations are rising. As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing investment was 1.9%, infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real estate market, and the National Fiscal Work Conference stated that a more proactive fiscal policy would continue in 2026 [10][11] - Major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Germany will increase its federal debt issuance by about 20% in 2026, Japan will launch its largest - scale initial budget, and the US will have additional fiscal expenditures of about $480 billion in 2026. The PPI shows an upward trend, and attention should be paid to the start of the replenishment cycle [12][14] 3.2 Supply - The growth rate of global copper mine production is expected to be limited. In 2025, the growth rate of global copper mine production was adjusted down to 1.4% due to production cuts in some mines, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.3% due to new and expanded production capacities in some countries [19][20] - In China, the supply of copper concentrates is in short supply, imports are increasing year - on - year, and port inventories are relatively low. From January to November 2025, copper ore and concentrate imports increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and as of mid - December 2025, port copper concentrate inventories decreased compared with the same period last year [22][23] - By - products improve the loss situation of smelters, and copper concentrate supply is tight, putting pressure on processing fees. In 2025, the TC of imported copper concentrates was in the negative range, and the long - term processing fee for copper concentrates in 2026 was set at 0 [25][26] - The growth rate of global refined copper production is expected to slow down in 2026. The growth rate is expected to slow down to 0.9% in 2026 due to limited copper concentrate supply. China's CSPT will cut the capacity load of mine - copper by more than 10% in 2026, affecting about 1 million tons of global refined copper supply [27][30] - The refined copper market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic", with significant import inversion and a decline in net imports. From January to November 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year [32][33] 3.3 Demand - Driven by supply - capacity expansion and demand increase, China's copper product output increased. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper products increased by 8.8% year - on - year [36][37] - The output of refined copper rods increased. New capacity, demand growth, and substitution effects contributed to the increase in output in 2025. The output of recycled copper rods decreased, driving some demand to refined copper rods [38][39] - The output of copper strips slightly decreased, while the output of copper foils increased significantly. The demand for copper strips is expected to be differentiated, and the demand for copper foils is driven by energy - storage and new - energy vehicle consumption [40][41] - The output of copper tubes was affected by air - conditioner production scheduling, with a significant year - on - year decline in the fourth quarter. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper tubes decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [43][44] - Real - estate demand dragged down the performance of copper rods. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper rods decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [46][47] - The demand for power - grid construction increased significantly, while the growth rate of power - source investment slowed down. In 2025, the cumulative power - grid investment increased by 7.17% year - on - year, and in 2026, it is expected to continue to grow [48][50] - The growth of the global photovoltaic market is expected to slow down in 2026. In 2025, the new photovoltaic installed capacity in China increased significantly, but in 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to policy adjustments, grid - absorption pressure, etc. [51][53] - The global wind - power industry is expected to remain prosperous in 2026. In 2025, the new installed capacity of wind - power in China increased significantly, and from 2026 - 2028, the average annual growth rate of onshore and offshore wind - power is expected to be high [54][55] - The domestic real - estate market is expected to be stabilized. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real - estate market, and in 2025, the decline in real - estate indicators narrowed [56][58] - The growth rate of home - appliance consumption is expected to slow down in 2026. Although there is still policy support in 2026, the growth rate will slow down both domestically and overseas [60][61] - The production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China continued to grow significantly in 2025. In 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to the change in vehicle - purchase tax policy [63][68] 3.4 Inventory - Global copper inventory shows obvious regional differentiation. High prices will suppress demand in the short term, leading to an increase in social inventory. As of mid - December 2025, domestic electrolytic copper and bonded - area electrolytic copper inventories increased compared with the same period last year [71][72] - There is a concern about a short squeeze in the LME copper market. In 2026, there will be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market. The growth rate of global refined copper production will slow down to 0.9% in 2026, and the demand growth rate will slow down to 2.1%, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 150,000 tons [73][74]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2026, the industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of "overall surplus and structural differentiation." Supply will be concentrated in the northwest, with slow clearance of backward capacity. Demand growth will slow down, mainly driven by polysilicon but limited by the slowdown in photovoltaic installation growth. Electricity cost is the core variable, with the northwest having a stable cost advantage and the southwest showing significant seasonal fluctuations. Prices are expected to fluctuate around the cost range, constrained by supply elasticity [5][7][10]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon industry is transitioning from an "excess logic" to a complex stage of "policy intervention and high - quality capacity reshaping." Supply will experience structural changes, with backward capacity facing rigid exit and high - quality N - type material in short supply. Demand will enter a platform period due to the slowdown in global photovoltaic installation growth, and the industrial chain profit needs to be redistributed downstream. The market will be in a game between the "policy bottom" and the "demand top," and price trends and basis structures will be significantly affected by policy implementation and technological iteration [5][13][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Market Review - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2025, the price of industrial silicon showed a significant downward trend in the first half of the year due to supply pressure, and then fluctuated widely in the second half. The price was affected by factors such as production reduction in the southwest, weak downstream demand, and policy expectations [25]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market in 2025 went through four stages: shock, decline, sharp rise, and high - level consolidation. Policy factors, supply - demand imbalances, and market sentiment were the main drivers of price changes [28][29][30]. 3.2 Cost and Profit - **Power Cost**: Power cost is the most important variable in the cost of industrial silicon. The southwest has obvious seasonal power cost changes, while the northwest has a relatively stable power cost structure. In the future, the power cost advantage in Xinjiang will be more obvious through the source - network - load - storage integration model, and Yunnan and Sichuan have their own green power utilization models, but there are still challenges in power supply stability [34][35][36]. - **Silicon Coal**: In 2025, the price of silicon coal dropped by 30% - 45%, but in 2026, the downward space is limited. If the coal price stabilizes and rebounds, it will support the cost of industrial silicon. The price of silicon coal is expected to rebound to 1600 - 1800 yuan/ton if the "anti - involution" policy promotes industry self - discipline [43][44]. - **Overall Cost and Profit**: The cost of industrial silicon is relatively stable in 2026. The northwest has a lower cost, while the southwest has higher costs in the dry season. The profit level in 2025 was differentiated, and the industry profit rebounded slightly in the second half of the year [49]. 3.3 Supply - **Excess Pattern and Slow Clearance**: The industrial silicon supply in 2026 will maintain the pattern of overall surplus and structural differentiation. There is a large amount of backward capacity, and the market has difficulty in quickly clearing it due to policy - market differences and regional interest differentiation [57][58][62]. - **New Capacity**: New capacity will still be concentrated in the northwest in 2026. However, due to the impact of industrial silicon profits, the construction and commissioning of some new capacity may be postponed [67]. 3.4 Demand - **Polysilicon**: The demand for polysilicon in 2026 will be affected by the slowdown in photovoltaic installation growth. The supply of polysilicon will experience structural changes, with backward capacity being eliminated and high - quality N - type material in short supply. The price and basis structure will be affected by policy implementation and technological iteration [69][74][131]. - **Organic Silicon**: The demand for organic silicon is expected to remain stable in 2026. The supply - demand balance is expected to be repaired, and exports will drive the growth of organic silicon demand [104][107]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The demand for silicon in the aluminum alloy industry will remain stable in 2026. Although the production of the aluminum alloy industry is growing, the consumption of primary industrial silicon is limited, and new energy vehicle consumption has limited impact on the demand for industrial silicon [112]. - **Export**: The export of industrial silicon is expected to remain stable in 2026. Overseas markets mainly purchase on - demand, and some overseas orders have been transferred to China due to cost and quality advantages [122]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2026, the supply of industrial silicon will increase slightly, and the demand growth rate will be about 5%. The supply - demand gap will widen slightly, and the surplus pattern will be slightly improved [125][126]. - **Polysilicon**: In 2026, the supply - demand situation of polysilicon will be affected by policies. If the capacity is tightened as expected, the market will be in a tight - balance state; otherwise, it will remain in an oversupply state [127][129]. 3.6 Market Outlook - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2026, the industrial silicon market will continue to be in a slightly surplus state. Prices will fluctuate around the cost range, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes brought about by short - term supply - demand mismatches and policy implementation [10][130]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market will be in a game between policy implementation, capacity clearance, and global installation demand. The price will seek a balance among the "policy bottom," "demand top," and "quality difference," and the market may be in a tight - balance state [17][131].