贵金属周度观察： 美联储鸽声重振，但分歧仍存 王娜 从业资格证号：F3055965 交易咨询资格证号：Z0001999 2025年11月23日 核心要点与策略 因素 逻辑观点 • 观点：宽幅震荡 2 • 本周内贵金属行情延续"联储政策预期锚定"特征，价格波动核心围绕美联储降息时点博弈展开。10月和11月非农就业数据 将在12月利率决议数据参考中缺席，市场需依赖非官方替代指标及联储内部调研数据判断经济基本面，政策预期易受边际信 息扰动而反复，美联储官员达成共识难度加大。 黄 金 • 长期支持贵金属强势的因素并未发生改变，在10月快速上涨连创历史新高后，市场需要以震荡进行蓄势，并消化多空分歧。 短期内市场处于"政策预期模糊+官方数据真空"的特殊阶段，围绕美联储降息预期（包括通胀、就业及美联储人事变动带 来的预期变动）进行定价，市场波动加大，处于高位宽幅震荡态势，建议配置盘逢低完成长期配置布局。 • 技术面来看，黄金当前处于三角形整理形态中，形态下沿支撑位位于3950-4000美元，上沿压力位则在4200美元。日线级别 指标层面，MACD指标与RSI指标均持续处于相对中性区间，尚未出现明确的多空信号指引，反映当前多 ...

铜周报 20251123 宏观短期偏空，矿端犹存约束， 沪铜震荡 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格数据 | 04 | 基本面数据 | 07 | | 03 宏观经济数据 | 19 | | | 盘面跌、终端采购意愿回升，铜现货升贴水抬升 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 本周LME铜0-3M升贴水先跌后涨、环比变动有限 6 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比跌0.11美元/吨至-42.32美元/吨，仍低 8 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周十港铜精矿库存环比增5.7万吨至70.49万吨 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 精废价差环比走弱 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251116 [1] Report Core View - The macro - situation is short - term bearish, the fundamentals are acceptable, and the copper market is in a volatile state [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Copper spot trading improved slightly, and the premium/discount remained stable overall [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium/discount strengthened compared to the previous period [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.17/ton week - on - week to - $42.21/ton, still at a low level [16] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 18,200 tons week - on - week to 647,900 tons [19] - The change in the refined scrap price difference was limited week - on - week [22] - The estimated output of electrolytic copper in China in November will decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [25] - From January to October in China, the import volume of copper ore and its concentrates was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [27] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased week - on - week, while the bonded area inventory increased [28] - LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [29] - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, mainly due to the callback of the previous week's market and the concentrated release of new orders [32] - From November 1st to 9th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 5% year - on - year [34] - In November, the production schedules of domestic component enterprises varied, and the overall production schedule is expected to decline month - on - month [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - In October in China, the new social financing was 810 billion yuan, the new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [41] - In October in the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for eight consecutive months, while the service PMI reached an eight - month high [43] - Fed officials took a hawkish stance, and the probability of an interest rate cut in December decreased [47]

铂钯专题报告 2025 年 11 月 17 日 专题报告 国内铂钯供需 国联期货研究所 交易咨询业务资格编号 杨磊 从业资格号：F03128841 投资咨询号：Z0020255 国内铂钯供需简况 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师： 国内铂钯供给主要有进口、国内矿产和回收再生，其中：最大来源为进口， 占近四分之三；国内矿产供应量少；回收再生量占供给的比重超五分之一。国 内铂钯需求主要有汽车、工业、投资、首饰，其中：汽车催化剂是最主要下游， 占总需求的比重超一半；工业领域消费合计占近三分之一；首饰消费占近十分 之一；其余少量需求为铂条等投资。 国内铂钯矿产及回收再生 相关报告： 近年来全球铂钯回收量整体呈下降趋势；而我国铂钯回收再生量增幅明显， 已成为国内供给的重要补充来源，尤其是钯金。受国内一系列推动汽车以旧换 新的政策激励，国内汽车报废回收量显著增长。2024 年国内铂金回收再生量占 当年国内铂金供给量的12.1%，钯金回收再生量占当年国内钯金供给量的64.2%。 我国铂族金属储量占全球份额极低，并不属于全球主要的铂钯金属矿产国，铂 钯金属矿产量占全球份额只几近 1%。 国内铂钯进口 我国铂钯国内矿产 ...

核心观点 主要观点 • 上周各期权隐含波动率表现为先扬后抑震荡回落格局，周一至周三盘中受海外流动性等因素影响隐含波动率出 现局部冲高，但我们亦注意到此过程中国内A股韧性十足，周四周五随着市场情绪的修复隐含波动率再度创出此 轮新低。当前11月IO、HO和MO期权平值隐波均值分别在13.95%、14%和18.3%左右，与30日历史波动率相比分别 溢价-2.89个百分点、-2个百分点和-0.3个百分点左右，溢价整体处于历史偏低水平，预计隐波继续回落空间相 对有限，波动率聚集性特征下或将继续呈现低位震荡格局。 • 隐波的不断回落显示期权市场更多以震荡上行进行定价，短期各指数向上加速概率仍旧偏低。 股指期权 • 持仓PCR值出现明显上行，看涨期权卖方在上周最后两个交易日均有明显减仓趋势，显示资金观点更多认为指数 下方空间不大。 • MO看跌期权持仓密集区在行权价7400点以下区域，IO看跌期权则在行权价4700点处依旧持仓极高，但结合技术 形态我们更倾向于用上周低点附近作为11月看跌期权卖方的防守区域。 2 • 综合而言，11月合约剩余时间将进入最后两周，时间价值衰减加快。一方面前期11月虚值看跌期权卖方仍可考 虑继续 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum 2512 closed at 21,625 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a week-on-week increase of 1.41%. Shanghai Aluminum showed a strong and volatile trend. The direction of the Fed's December interest rate cut is unclear, the US government shutdown set a record, and the PMI performance of the manufacturing and service industries in the US and Europe diverged, resulting in macro uncertainties. During the off-season, the start - up rate of aluminum products decreased, but the inventory pressure was limited. There were disturbances in overseas supply, and the copper - aluminum ratio was at a high level, so Shanghai Aluminum was strongly volatile [3]. - Macroscopically, the direction of the Fed's December interest rate cut is unclear, the US government shutdown set a record, and the PMI performance of the manufacturing and service industries in the US and Europe diverged. In terms of supply, domestic ore is in short supply, while imported ore is sufficient, and the shipment of some Guinea ore has resumed. The weekly output of domestic alumina decreased, but the operating capacity is still at a high level year - on - year and is accumulating inventory again. The room for the increase of domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is limited. In terms of demand, the overall start - up rate of aluminum products decreased this week, and it is expected to continue to decline next week. In terms of inventory, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly week - on - week, the spot inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased week - on - week [3]. - The macro situation is mixed with long and short factors, and uncertainties are increasing. During the off - season, the start - up rate of aluminum products decreased, but the inventory pressure was limited. There were disturbances overseas, and the copper - aluminum ratio was at a high level. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long at low levels. Alumina continues to accumulate inventory, and its fundamentals are still weak, so it is recommended to go short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - This week, Shanghai Aluminum was strongly volatile. The spread between December and January contracts of Shanghai Aluminum continued to be under pressure week - on - week, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3M spread continued to weaken week - on - week. The high price of the Shanghai Aluminum futures market put pressure on the spot premium of aluminum ingots [7][11][15]. Fundamental Data - Supply of domestic ore is tight, while imported ore is sufficient, and the shipment of some Guinea ore has resumed [19][21]. - The monthly spread of alumina changed little. The weekly output of domestic alumina decreased by 13,000 tons to 1.84 million tons, but the operating capacity is still at a high level year - on - year. The alumina import window narrowed, and the overall inventory increased by 56,000 tons to 4.788 million tons [22][26][29]. - The room for the increase of domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is limited. The weekly output of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased by 70 tons to 854,000 tons. Aluminum imports are at a premium. The spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly week - on - week, the spot inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased week - on - week [37][39][44]. - The overall start - up rate of aluminum products decreased this week, and it is expected to continue to decline next week due to the high price of the futures market and the off - season effect [51][56]. - From October 27th to November 2nd, the transaction areas of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities decreased year - on - year. The production plan of household air conditioners in November was 12.76 million units, a decrease of 23.7% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year. The production plan of refrigerators in November was 7.78 million units, a decrease of 9.4% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year. The production plan of washing machines in November was 7.93 million units, a decrease of 0.2% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 17% year - on - year. The production plans of domestic component enterprises in November varied, with the overall production plan expected to decline month - on - month [57][64][74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc (2512) closed at 22,720 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, with a week-on-week increase of 1.63%. The center of Shanghai zinc has risen [3]. - The macro situation is mixed with both positive and negative factors, and uncertainty is increasing. The increase in domestic refined zinc production falls short of expectations, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, but the downstream operating rate is declining. With macro uncertainty and a mixed fundamental situation with limited driving forces, Shanghai zinc should be treated as a volatile market [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - The spread between December and January contracts of Shanghai zinc has changed little week-on-week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium has strengthened [9]. - The spot premium in Shanghai has risen, while those in Guangdong and Tianjin are under pressure [12]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Smelters continue to scramble for domestic zinc ore, and the processing fee for imported ore continues to deteriorate. In October, domestic refined zinc production increased by more than 17,000 tons month-on-month and about 21% year-on-year, but the increase was less than expected. In November, production is expected to decrease by 0.9% month-on-month and increase by nearly 20% year-on-year [17][19][21]. - **Demand**: This week, the downstream operating rate has declined. The operating rate of galvanizing has decreased due to environmental protection restrictions in some areas, but orders from some southern terminals have improved, and the operating rate may rebound next week. The high zinc price has suppressed the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy, which is expected to continue to decline next week. The market demand for zinc oxide is average, and the operating rate is expected to remain low next week [3][27]. - **Inventory**: Domestic zinc ingot spot inventory has slightly decreased and is at a high level compared to the same period last year, while the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remains unchanged. LME zinc inventory has slightly decreased and is at a low level compared to the same period last year [33][36]. - **Related Industries**: From October 27th to November 2nd, the transaction areas of new and second-hand houses in 10 key cities decreased year-on-year. In November, the production plan of household air conditioners is 12.76 million units, a decrease of 23.7% compared to the actual production in the same period last year. The production plan of refrigerators is 7.78 million units, a decrease of 9.4%. The production plan of washing machines is 7.93 million units, a decrease of 0.2%. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 17% year-on-year. In November, the production plans of domestic component enterprises vary, and the overall production is expected to decline month-on-month [40][43][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - This week, the spot price of industrial silicon remained largely stable with minor fluctuations, while the futures price oscillated downward. The downstream demand decreased slightly, and the procurement sentiment was poor. The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, but there were also some bullish factors such as cost increases and production cuts in the southwest [6]. - The recommended strategy is to maintain a short position when the price rises, with an upper pressure level of 9,500 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon was largely stable with minor fluctuations, and the market atmosphere was sluggish. The futures price oscillated strongly due to expectations of production reduction and the establishment of a storage platform. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - The recommended strategy is to hold the previous short position, with an oscillation range of 48,000 - 52,000 yuan [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Core Points and Strategies Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: The spot price decreased slightly, and the futures price oscillated downward. The southwest region gradually reduced production, and the downstream demand was weak [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: - **Bearish Logic**: High supply in October, high inventory, and limited demand growth in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Bullish Logic**: Cost increase, production cuts in Xinjiang and the southwest, and expectations of the dry season in the southwest [6]. - **Recommended Strategy**: Short positions can be established when the price rises, with an upper pressure level of 9,500 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: The spot price was stable with minor fluctuations, and the futures price oscillated strongly. The market was in a state of "strong expectation" and "weak reality" [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: - **Bearish Logic**: High inventory, loose supply, weak downstream transactions, and poor fundamentals [12]. - **Bullish Logic**: Rising component tender prices, policy support, and industrial linkage effects [13]. - **Recommended Strategy**: Hold the previous short position, with an oscillation range of 48,000 - 52,000 yuan [13]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Data Review Price Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract Si2601 was 9,220 yuan/ton, up 1.32% from last week. The trading volume increased by 29.79%, and the open interest increased by 17.38% [27]. - **Spot**: The prices of Tongyang 5530 and Tongyang 4210 in the East China market remained unchanged from last week [27]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Si2601 (East China 553) decreased by 52.17%, and the basis of Si2601 (East China 421) decreased by 25% [27]. Supply and Demand Data - **Supply**: The overall industrial silicon production decreased by 7.85% this week, and the opening rate decreased to 34.30%. The southwest region saw a significant decline in production, while the northwest region also had a slight decrease [28][58]. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy was weak. The production of polysilicon decreased by 5.05%, and the production of organic silicon increased by 5.22% [28]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 554,800 tons, up 4.8% from last week, while the futures inventory decreased by 505 tons [28][80]. Cost and Profit Data - **Cost**: The production cost increased mainly due to the rising price of petroleum coke and electricity in the southwest region [78]. - **Profit**: The profit decreased slightly this week, and it is expected to continue to decline next week [78]. 3.3 Polysilicon Data Review Price Data - **Spot**: The price of P - type polysilicon remained unchanged at 44,000 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type polysilicon decreased by 1.54% to 51,000 yuan/ton [119]. - **Futures**: The futures price oscillated strongly due to expectations of production reduction and the establishment of a storage platform [12]. Supply and Demand Data - **Supply**: In November, the polysilicon production is expected to decrease, with a north - south difference in production changes. The overall supply is still at a high level, and the inventory continued to rise [126]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand was weak. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components decreased, and the procurement sentiment was poor [119][126]. Cost and Profit Data - **Cost**: The average production cost decreased to 41,553 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2% [132]. - **Profit**: The gross profit and gross margin increased slightly, but the overall profit level was still low [132].

国联期货能化估值策略周报 强弱分化延续，不可过分看空 2025年11月9日 林菁 从业资格证号：F03109650 投资咨询证号：Z0018461 核心要点及策略 逻辑观点 原油：维持谨慎偏多（布伦特63-69），进一步上行驱动依赖地缘。 地缘因素：美委、美尼地缘摩擦边际变化，市场对冲突溢价反应敏感。 风险点 地缘政治缓和、原油超预期累库、宏观流动性抽紧 2 目录 CONTENTS 能化周度市场表现 04 原油数据跟踪 08 01 02 能化产业链基差数据 15 03 策略观点 能化品：整体强弱为聚酯＞纯苯苯乙烯＝甲醇聚烯烃，"多配PX、PTA，空配甲醇聚烯烃"仍可谨慎持有，但需警惕估值 改善及年底结算平仓带来的影响，不可过分看空。 原油：EIA库存显示美油表需回升、小幅累库、炼厂预期外降负较多、汽油表需回落维持去库，季节性需求下降阶段性完 成；当前汽柴油裂差表现良好，后续转入对取暖油需求的关注。沙特-亚洲升水下调，市场情绪转弱。边际仍为地缘。 聚酯：PX开工上升、TA及EG开工下降；聚酯及下游开工稳中有升、持续好于预期；产业链库存回升。检修因素或继续 支持TA加工费，外部环境缓和及过年偏晚等因素或支持聚酯下 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251109 [1] Core Viewpoint - There is uncertainty in the macro - environment, and the resonance between the fundamentals' expectations and reality is limited [1] Price Data - The copper futures price declined, the spot purchasing sentiment warmed up, and the premium increased [9] - The LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation widened slightly week - on - week [10] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.11/ton week - on - week to - $42.04/ton, still at a low level [14] - The inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 0.36 tons week - on - week to 62.97 tons [16] - The refined - scrap copper price spread decreased week - on - week [18] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in November is expected to decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [20] - China's imports of copper ore and concentrates from January to October were 2508.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [22] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased week - on - week, while the bonded - area inventory decreased [25] - The LME copper inventory increased, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [26] - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, as the copper price declined and downstream purchasing picked up [29] - The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market from October 1st to 31st increased by 17% year - on - year [30] - The production schedules of domestic component enterprises in November vary, with the overall schedule expected to decline month - on - month [31] - The planned production of household air - conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [32] Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1 [35] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for eight consecutive months in October, and the service PMI reached an eight - month high [37] - The direction of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December is unclear [40]