Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Ethylene is the most important basic organic raw material in the chemical industry, known as the "mother of the petrochemical industry." Its production capacity, process routes, and downstream structure reflect a country's petrochemical development level [4]. - Ethylene production is mainly through steam cracking, with different raw materials leading to different process routes. Downstream applications are extensive, mainly in polyethylene, ethylene glycol, styrene, and PVC, and the demand is closely related to the macro - economy and industry cycles [4][5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Ethylene Basics - **Definition**: Ethylene is the simplest olefin with the formula C₂H₄ and structure CH₂ = CH₂. It is an important chemical raw material and a natural plant - ripening hormone [8]. - **Physical and Chemical Properties** - **Physical Properties**: Colorless, slightly sweet - smelling gas at normal temperature and pressure; has a low melting point of - 169.2°C and a boiling point of - 103.7°C; less dense than air; difficult to dissolve in water but easy in organic solvents; highly volatile and flammable, with an explosion limit of 2.7% - 36.0% [10][11][15][16]. - **Chemical Properties**: Chemically active due to the C = C double - bond, mainly showing addition, oxidation, and polymerization reactions [17]. - **Storage and Transportation** - **Storage**: Commonly stored in low - temperature liquid form using double - layer or full - containment cryogenic storage tanks at about - 104°C; can also be stored in pressurized gaseous form in steel pressure vessels or spherical tanks [25][26]. - **Transportation**: Mainly transported by pipeline in large - scale plants and chemical parks; for long - distance or international transport, it is usually in low - temperature liquid form; high - pressure gaseous transport is used for short - distance and small - batch transport [27][29][30]. II. Ethylene Industry Chain - **Production Process** - **Mainstream Process: Hydrocarbon Steam Cracking**: Accounts for over 90% of global ethylene production. Raw materials include light (ethane, propane, butane), medium (naphtha), and heavy (AGO, VGO) types. The process involves raw material pre - treatment, cracking reaction, quenching and heat recovery, compression and purification, and low - temperature distillation separation [35][36][38]. - **Auxiliary Processes**: Catalytic cracking has a lower reaction temperature and is suitable for high - propylene demand scenarios; methanol - to - olefins (MTO) does not depend on petroleum resources and is suitable for areas rich in coal and natural gas [46][47]. - **Global Ethylene Production Process Pattern and Characteristics** - **Global Pattern**: In 2025, ethane cracking accounted for 39.27% and naphtha cracking 36.86%, together over 75%. Other processes play a supplementary role [51]. - **Trends**: The global ethylene process shows a trend of increasing light - hydrocarbon use, decreasing heavy - raw material use, and coexistence of multiple routes. There are significant regional differences based on resource endowments [57]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Polyethylene**: Consumes over 50% of ethylene, including LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE, with different production processes and applications [68]. - **Styrene**: Produced mainly by ethylbenzene dehydrogenation. It is mainly used in synthetic polymers and rubbers, and its demand is sensitive to the manufacturing industry cycle [71]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Produced by ethylene oxidation - hydration globally, and coal - based process is developed in China. Over 80% is used in the polyester industry [74]. - **Ethylene Oxide**: Produced by direct ethylene oxidation. It is mainly used to produce ethylene glycol and is also used in other fields [77]. - **PVC**: Produced by ethylene and calcium carbide methods, with products used in hard and soft goods [78]. - **EVA**: Produced by copolymerizing ethylene and vinyl acetate. Low - VA EVA is used in foaming materials, and high - VA EVA is used in photovoltaic encapsulation films, etc. [82].

铜周报 20251228 现货需求承压， 宏观预期向上，铜矿供给约束 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 影响因素分析 2 | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格数据 | 04 | 基本面数据 | 07 | | 03 宏观经济数据 | 19 | | | 07 3 5 盘面强势、铜现货需求弱、贴水走扩 6 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 12月24日LME铜0-3M升水较前周五走强 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比跌1.25美元/吨至-44.9美元/吨，仍低 8 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据钢联，本周铜精矿港口库存67万吨，环比减1万吨，同比偏低 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 精废价差环比走强 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 国内12月电解铜产量预计环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - expectation is positive for copper as the Fed's rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals, domestic policy expectations are rising, and major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Fundamentally, global copper mine supply is restricted, and the growth rate of refined copper production is expected to slow down. Although the domestic demand growth rate may slow down, there will still be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market in 2026. Therefore, the Shanghai copper market is expected to continue an upward trend, and a long - position approach is recommended [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro - The US inflation is slowing down, the labor market is weakening, and the rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals. In November, the US CPI slowed to 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI slowed to 2.6% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and launched a short - term Treasury purchase plan of about $40 billion per month [7][8] - In China, fixed - asset investment is slowing down, and policy expectations are rising. As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing investment was 1.9%, infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real estate market, and the National Fiscal Work Conference stated that a more proactive fiscal policy would continue in 2026 [10][11] - Major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Germany will increase its federal debt issuance by about 20% in 2026, Japan will launch its largest - scale initial budget, and the US will have additional fiscal expenditures of about $480 billion in 2026. The PPI shows an upward trend, and attention should be paid to the start of the replenishment cycle [12][14] 3.2 Supply - The growth rate of global copper mine production is expected to be limited. In 2025, the growth rate of global copper mine production was adjusted down to 1.4% due to production cuts in some mines, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.3% due to new and expanded production capacities in some countries [19][20] - In China, the supply of copper concentrates is in short supply, imports are increasing year - on - year, and port inventories are relatively low. From January to November 2025, copper ore and concentrate imports increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and as of mid - December 2025, port copper concentrate inventories decreased compared with the same period last year [22][23] - By - products improve the loss situation of smelters, and copper concentrate supply is tight, putting pressure on processing fees. In 2025, the TC of imported copper concentrates was in the negative range, and the long - term processing fee for copper concentrates in 2026 was set at 0 [25][26] - The growth rate of global refined copper production is expected to slow down in 2026. The growth rate is expected to slow down to 0.9% in 2026 due to limited copper concentrate supply. China's CSPT will cut the capacity load of mine - copper by more than 10% in 2026, affecting about 1 million tons of global refined copper supply [27][30] - The refined copper market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic", with significant import inversion and a decline in net imports. From January to November 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year [32][33] 3.3 Demand - Driven by supply - capacity expansion and demand increase, China's copper product output increased. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper products increased by 8.8% year - on - year [36][37] - The output of refined copper rods increased. New capacity, demand growth, and substitution effects contributed to the increase in output in 2025. The output of recycled copper rods decreased, driving some demand to refined copper rods [38][39] - The output of copper strips slightly decreased, while the output of copper foils increased significantly. The demand for copper strips is expected to be differentiated, and the demand for copper foils is driven by energy - storage and new - energy vehicle consumption [40][41] - The output of copper tubes was affected by air - conditioner production scheduling, with a significant year - on - year decline in the fourth quarter. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper tubes decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [43][44] - Real - estate demand dragged down the performance of copper rods. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper rods decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [46][47] - The demand for power - grid construction increased significantly, while the growth rate of power - source investment slowed down. In 2025, the cumulative power - grid investment increased by 7.17% year - on - year, and in 2026, it is expected to continue to grow [48][50] - The growth of the global photovoltaic market is expected to slow down in 2026. In 2025, the new photovoltaic installed capacity in China increased significantly, but in 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to policy adjustments, grid - absorption pressure, etc. [51][53] - The global wind - power industry is expected to remain prosperous in 2026. In 2025, the new installed capacity of wind - power in China increased significantly, and from 2026 - 2028, the average annual growth rate of onshore and offshore wind - power is expected to be high [54][55] - The domestic real - estate market is expected to be stabilized. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real - estate market, and in 2025, the decline in real - estate indicators narrowed [56][58] - The growth rate of home - appliance consumption is expected to slow down in 2026. Although there is still policy support in 2026, the growth rate will slow down both domestically and overseas [60][61] - The production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China continued to grow significantly in 2025. In 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to the change in vehicle - purchase tax policy [63][68] 3.4 Inventory - Global copper inventory shows obvious regional differentiation. High prices will suppress demand in the short term, leading to an increase in social inventory. As of mid - December 2025, domestic electrolytic copper and bonded - area electrolytic copper inventories increased compared with the same period last year [71][72] - There is a concern about a short squeeze in the LME copper market. In 2026, there will be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market. The growth rate of global refined copper production will slow down to 0.9% in 2026, and the demand growth rate will slow down to 2.1%, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 150,000 tons [73][74]

工业硅期货年报 国联期货研究所 研究所 期货交易咨询业务资格： 黎伟 从业资格号：F0300172 投资咨询号：Z0011568 专题报告】 【硅期将至】工业硅基本面专 期权合约设计解读篇 【乘新"硅"来】工业硅基本 面专题报告（二）工业硅供需 格局分析篇 【乘新"硅"来】工业硅上市 前策略报告 过剩格局下的矛盾演化与政策博弈 报告摘要 新能源|光伏产业链年报 2026 年光伏产业链年度报告 2025 年 12 月 24 日 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师： 近年来，光伏产业链从产能快速扩张到质量与效率竞争阶段，当中原料矛盾与 产业结构也受制牵引。在上游工业硅与多晶硅的过剩与结构分化中，迫使下游硅片、 电池片以及组件环节必须通过技术升级与成本管控来消化原料波动，在产业链利润 分配过程中也从倚靠资源禀赋倾向倚靠技术迭代、产业链一体化的整合能力。与此 同时，全行业在"反内卷"与能耗环保政策约束下，低效产能的退出虽缓慢但不可 逆。企业需主动适应更高标准的能耗、碳足迹及产品品质要求，将政策压力转化为 绿色制造与可持续供应链的竞争优势。叠加在技术驱动下产业结构分化也会催生出 机构性机会，未来整个产业链也更聚焦 ...

金融期权|2026 年展望 2026 年金融期权展望 2025 年 12 月 23 日 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师： 2025 年金融期权市场呈现结构性变化与情绪分化特征，表现如下： 市场成交结构显著分化：成交增长主要由中证 1000 指数期权、中证 500ETF 期权及双创（科创 50、创业板）期权拉动，其中双创期权日均成交 额增长约50%。中证1000指数期权以33.69%的占比成为市场份额最大品种， 而上证 50ETF 期权份额持续萎缩至 6%左右，显示资金关注点仍在中小盘及 成长类指数。 黎伟 市场情绪与波动特征：持仓 PCR 值全年重心上移，虽从高位回落但仍 处历史中高水平，表明卖出看跌期权比例较高，市场中期情绪依然偏向乐 观。隐含波动率全年均值较 2024 年有所下降，即便在 8 月快速上涨行情中 也未触及历史极端高位，波动环境整体较为温和。同时，隐波负偏比例较 2024 年提升，主因在于市场中性策略产品扩容，其在现货端买入股票并在 衍生品端对冲，导致期货贴水扩大，进而推高了看跌期权的相对价值。 期权策略表现回顾：基于合成标的升贴水的量化择时策略收益稳健， 全年获得 23.6%的绝对 ...

贵金属|年报 2026 年贵金属行情展望 2025 年 12 月 23 日 | 国联期货研究所 | 贵金属牛市进阶， "金融属性+工业需求"双引擎驱动 | | --- | --- | |  号 证监许可[2011]1773 | 2026 年贵金属牛市将持续进阶，核心由"金融属性+工业需求"双引擎 | | | 驱动且品种分化显著：黄金依托全球宽财政周期下的债务与货币信用担 | | | 忧、美联储"前稳后快"的降息周期、央行购金的长期结构性支撑及仍 | | | 存增量空间的投资需求，维持震荡上行态势，成为对冲全球财政与货币 | | | 体系不确定性的"压舱石"。 | | 分析师： | | | 王娜  | 黄金已处于前所未有的高位区间，结合 年美国中期选举"钟摆效 2026 | | 从业资格证号：F3055965 | 应"将约束地缘与贸易波动强度，削弱黄金计价避险动能，预计 2026 | | 投资咨询证书号：Z0001999 | 年黄金价格难以重现 2025 年的爆发式增长，但黄金仍具有较强的抗跌 | | | 性与中长期配置价值，2026 年黄金高点有可能在 5000 美元/盎司左右。 | |  | 建议将黄 ...

铜周报 20251221 消费短期承压， 供给担忧和宏观预期共同提振盘面 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 | 本周沪铜主力2602合约周五下午收于93180元/吨，周环比跌1.05%。本周沪铜整体呈震荡走势： | | | --- | --- | | 行情回顾 美国通胀超预期放缓、就业继续降温，中国11月固投与地产承压，欧元区12月制造业PM加速萎 | | | 缩；美降息预期提振盘面但现实层面仍有扰动。消费弱、持货商用货，铜现货升贴水明显走低。 | | | 宏观，美国通胀超预期放缓、就业继续降温；日本央行强调未来审慎行事。供给，铜精矿港口库 | 存环比增值同比偏低。BM谈判仍难分难解。国内12月电解铜产量预计环比增5.96%、同比增 | | 运行逻辑 | 6.69%, 前期检修影响量回归。需求，精铜杆开工受限, 下周预计延续跌势。上周10个重点城市 | | 新房、二手房成交面积同比续降。12月家用空调排产量较去年同期生产实绩降22.3%。12月1-14日 | | | 全国乘用车新能源市场零售辆同比减4% ...

相关研究报告： 估值方面，玻璃近两年反复验证成本线支撑，绝对价格下限在 950 元/吨上下 随成本波动。一季度来看，年初高库存+需求淡季，玻璃或难脱离降价竞争，关注 成本支撑。开年后需求带来的估值弹性取决于前期出清力度以及中游库存压力去 化程度。FG05 合约估值参【1000，1280】，根据成本动态调整。 《玻璃：中游库存高企 成本 支撑加强；纯碱：投产对冲 出清 现价继续探底》国联期 货玻璃纯碱四季度报告 《玻璃：库存转移、供给变 动带来估值弹性；纯碱：成 本中枢上移 新利空在产能 投放》国联期货玻璃纯碱 11 月报告 纯碱： 展望 2026 年，纯碱预期供减需增，基本面得到边际修复，但行业高库存矛盾 的消化依旧面临挑战。供给端，纯碱中长期仍在扩产周期，2026 年新增供给集中 在年初和年末，年中行业在低估值下进行出清竞争，或能看到开工下降带来的过 剩矛盾消化。需求端 2025 年轻重碱分化的格局或在 2026 年延续，新能源锂电行 业的发展外加出口强势或带来请极爱你需求进一步抬升，而重碱端无论浮法玻璃 还是光伏玻璃，短期仍旧在行业亏损+库存高企的双重压力下面临出清压力，中期 或在二季度末看到日熔量修复。 ...

股指期货|年度报告 分析师： 项麒睿 心驱动力在于"抢出口"预期带来的充裕流动性。回顾 2025 年，市场整体 确实呈现"N"型走势，并且突破震荡格局，但也存在一些因素超出了我们 年初的预期：一方面，"抢出口"趋势降温后，我国出口展现了超预期的 强劲韧性，另一方面，企业盈利的显著修复时点也比预想中有所后移。 展望 2026 年，市场逻辑预计将发生关键转换，从流动性驱动转向盈利 修复驱动。国内"建设强大国内市场"的战略调整与"反内卷"政策，正 致力于从根源上改善内需与通缩预期。多项领先指标共同预示 PPI 有望步 入上行通道，企业利润修复可期，这将为市场奠定基本面基石并推动估值 消化，但修复强度或将弱于 2021 年。与此同时，尽管上半年出口可能面临 高基数压力，但经常性账户仍将呈现较强韧性，低利率环境下的"存款搬 家"趋势，以及美元信用弱化背景下跨境资金压力的缓和，有望继续营造 相对友善的资金环境。随着驱动力的切换，盈利确定性高、估值具备吸引 力的大盘价值风格短期来看优势凸显，市场风格短期或延续再平衡。中长 期来看，盈利修复机遇将成为 2026 年 A 股市场的关键主线。 相关研究报告： 盈风聚势启新程 证监 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251214 [1] Core Views - The LME copper squeeze and Fed rate cuts boost the market, and attention should be paid to the central bank's decision next Sunday [1] Price Data - The Shanghai copper market is strong, with negative consumption feedback, and the copper spot premium has declined [9] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium first fell and then rose, with a slight week - on - week decrease [13] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.22/ton week - on - week to - $43.08/ton, still at a low level [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 13,700 tons week - on - week to 763,900 tons [18] - The refined - scrap copper price difference strengthened week - on - week [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in December is expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year [23] - From January to November, the cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 4.883 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [24] - This week, both the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory increased week - on - week [27] - LME copper inventory continues to accumulate but the cancellation ratio remains high, and COMEX inventory continues to accumulate [29] - The operating rate of refined copper rods continued to decline week - on - week. The strong market significantly suppressed consumption [31] - From December 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 17% year - on - year and 10% compared with the same period last month [32] - The production of photovoltaic modules in December is expected to continue to decline [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production volume in the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - In November in China, the new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, the new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [41] - The eurozone's CPI rebounded to 2.2% in November [43] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it, and it still expects one rate cut next year [45]