Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the implied volatility of each option showed a significant upward and then downward trend. The declines on Monday and Thursday both led to an obvious upward trend in volatility. The at-the-money implied volatility of MO reached a very high level of 39%. Currently, the average at-the-money implied volatilities of April IO, HO, and MO options are around 16.85%, 17%, and 25.22% respectively, with premiums of -0.33 percentage points, 0.2 percentage points, and -2.97 percentage points compared to the 30-day historical volatility. The 30-day historical volatility of the underlying is still above the 60-day historical volatility, and technically, the volatility is still in an upward cycle. Due to the uncertainty in the Middle East situation, the downside space of implied volatility may still be relatively limited under the low premium [3]. - In terms of the relationship between implied volatility and the underlying index, the decline of the underlying index is more likely to drive the synchronous increase of implied volatility, while the rise of the index brings about the decline of volatility. Coupled with the decline of the position PCR value to a relatively low level in the past year, it indicates that the trend of put option sellers increasing positions is still restrained, and the market is still relatively cautious in the short term [3]. - In terms of position distribution, the contract with the highest call option position of MO has moved down to the 8000-point level, with the current position reaching more than 9000 lots. From the perspective of selling options, it is expected that the CSI 1000 Index will still face relatively large pressure above in the short term. The contract with the highest put option position is at the strike price of 7000 points, and there is a trend of increasing positions, indicating that the CSI 1000 Index will also face strong support below this area in the short term [3]. - In general, the market may digest panic through bottom - range oscillations. The significant upward and then downward movement of implied volatility last week indicates that the short - term emotional bottom may have basically emerged. It is recommended that investors can consider selling out - of - the - money MO call options with a strike price above 8000 points at high prices to collect certain option premiums. On the other hand, if the market experiences a panic decline again, it is advisable to consider selling MO put options with a strike price below 7000 points at an appropriate time for strategic long - position allocation [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Index Option Data Tracking - **Main Indicator Overview**: Not provided - **Trading Volume and Position Situation**: Not provided - **PCR Value and Underlying Index Trend**: Not provided - **Position Distribution Situation**: The contract with the highest call option position of MO has moved down to the 8000 - point level, with the current position reaching more than 9000 lots. The contract with the highest put option position is at the strike price of 7000 points, and there is a trend of increasing positions [3]. - **One - Year Volatility Cone**: Not provided - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: Last week, the implied volatility of each option showed a significant upward and then downward trend. The at - the - money implied volatility of MO reached 39%. Currently, the average at - the - money implied volatilities of April IO, HO, and MO options are around 16.85%, 17%, and 25.22% respectively, with premiums of - 0.33 percentage points, 0.2 percentage points, and - 2.97 percentage points compared to the 30 - day historical volatility. The 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying is still above the 60 - day historical volatility [3]. - **Volatility Surface Structure**: Not provided - **Skewness and Underlying Index Trend**: Not provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction in the market this week lies in the tug - of - war between external macro - environmental suppression and internal profit support. Overseas, geopolitical risks are repeated, high oil prices and global liquidity tightening expectations continue to ferment, suppressing overall market risk appetite. Domestically, although the transmission efficiency of macro - liquidity to the stock market is limited, the industrial enterprise profit data from January to February 2026 exceeded expectations, providing a solid profit bottom support for stock indices [4]. - The profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale from January to February 2026 increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate accelerating by 14.6 percentage points compared to the whole of last year. This improvement is due to the low - base effect of the same period last year and the substantial boost from improved corporate revenues, providing obvious support for the stock indices at the fundamental level [4]. - The uncertainty of the external environment is the main risk in the current market. The repeated Middle East situation keeps international oil prices high, and combined with the existing global inflation expectations, the expectation of liquidity tightening continues to heat up, suppressing global risk appetite and significantly inhibiting the small - cap growth style. Although Chinese assets have shown some resilience in this global fluctuation, external pressure has not been substantially relieved [4]. - In late March, the A - share market enters the intensive earnings disclosure window, and the core trading logic may gradually shift to performance verification. The large - cap value style with stable cash flow, high - dividend advantages, and profit certainty will further enhance its defensive and relative advantages. In contrast, the small - cap growth style faces greater uncertainty under the dual tests of external liquidity suppression and internal performance verification. The valuation ratio of CSI 300 to CSI 1000 is still at a relatively low historical level, providing potential momentum for the mean reversion of the large - cap style [4]. - Currently, the A - share market is in the stage of profit bottom confirmation and suppressed risk appetite. The improvement of profit data provides support for the market, but external uncertainties and the liquidity environment limit the upside space. Strategically, it is recommended to maintain a defensive mindset and continue to focus on the cross - variety arbitrage opportunity of going long on CSI 300 and short on CSI 1000 to capture the structural market where large - cap value is relatively dominant [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Tracking - **Economic Kinetic Energy**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Financing Demand**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Scissors Difference**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Liquidity Observation**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Industrial Production**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Investment and Consumption**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Interest Rate Difference**: Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Stock Market Barometer**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Stock Market Capital Flow**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Futures Market Capital Flow**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Spot - Futures Price Difference**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Cross - Variety Price Difference**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Cross - Period Price Difference**: Not elaborated in the provided content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the market is centered around the Middle East situation, with the main logic being the stagflation expectation caused by rising energy prices. As the conflict lasts longer than expected and escalates, the trading logic has shifted from inflation concerns to recession fears. Precious metals showed good performance on Friday under the support of the safe - haven attribute after the previous selling pressure was released. Due to the chaotic information on the US - Iran conflict, asset prices fluctuate frequently and passively, making trading difficult. Precious metals are expected to show a weak and volatile trend. Before a real agreement is reached, there is still a risk of the war escalating in some form. Gold is in an upward channel on the daily - line cycle from 2023 to the present, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the channel at $3900 - 4000. The gold volatility index GVZ is still at a high level (99.6% quantile), and the short - term volatility of gold is large, suitable for short - term speculation rather than allocation. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see in the short term [4]. - In the medium - term, regardless of the outcome of the US - Iran conflict, the energy price center is likely to rise, increasing the US imported inflation pressure, disrupting the Fed's interest - rate cut environment, and delaying the rate - cut rhythm, which will put short - term pressure on precious metals. However, considering the US stock market, debt repayment pressure, and private - credit market pressure, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this year is low. As the core anchor for gold pricing, real interest rates have room to fall, which will support gold. After a previous sharp unilateral rise, the US - Iran conflict has led to a significant decline in risk appetite, causing gold to be sold as the primary liquid asset. The market is likely to enter a four - month shock - consolidation phase to complete valuation repair [4]. - In the long - term, the outcome of the US - Iran conflict will affect the market's pricing of gold from the perspective of the US comprehensive strength assessment. If the US fails to obtain control of the Strait of Hormuz in the US - Iran peace talks, the global perception of the US strength will be re - evaluated, and the trend of de - dollarization will continue. The core support logic for precious metals has not fundamentally changed, and long - term factors such as global order reconstruction, high geopolitical uncertainty, and global monetary system reconstruction still exist [7]. - Silver, platinum, and palladium are more like beta versions of gold from a financial perspective. Their explosive growth in the past year was mainly due to investment demand and will continue to follow gold price fluctuations. As the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the global economy deepens, economic uncertainty increases, and industrial demand expectations decline, which will affect the price levels of silver, platinum, and palladium from an industrial perspective [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - influencing Factors - The report mentions data on the US federal fund target rate, US Treasury yields and spreads, US Treasury real yields and inflation expectations, and policy interest rates and Treasury yields of major economies, with data sources from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [15][18][21][24]. 3.2 ETF持仓跟踪 - Gold and silver ETF holdings data are provided. For example, on March 27, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF held 1052.7 tons with no change, and the SLV silver ETF held 15409.46 tons with no change. Data sources are from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [30]. - Information on the scale of China's commodity - based gold ETF holdings is also mentioned, with data from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [34]. 3.3 Exchange Inventories - Gold and silver exchange inventory data are presented, with data sources from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [37][42]. 3.4 Domestic and Foreign Futures - Spot Price Differences - Information on domestic and foreign futures - spot price differences is provided, with data from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [50]. 3.5 Precious Metal Ratios - Data on precious metal ratios are given, with data sources from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [57]. 3.6 Gold ETF Volatility Index - The gold ETF volatility index (GVZ) is a key indicator to measure the market's expectation of the gold price fluctuation in the next 30 days, calculated based on the option prices of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). When GVZ breaks through 30 (historical high range), it indicates a significant increase in gold price volatility, and leverage should be reduced and positions controlled. On March 27, 2026, the implied volatility of the Shanghai gold at - the - money option was 34.66%, and its quantiles in the past one - year, three - year, and since 2020 were 93.62%, 97.88%, and 98.58% respectively. The implied volatility of the Shanghai silver at - the - money option was 72.12%, and its quantiles in the past one - year and three - year were 83.66% and 94.56% respectively. Data sources are from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [65][67][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the market is currently dominated by weak reality and weak expectations. Without supply - side policy drivers or demand - side positive news, the upside space is limited. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a weakly oscillating trend. The recommended strategy is to gradually short on rebounds when the price is between 8800 - 9000 [7][8]. - For polysilicon, the market is in a supply - demand loose pattern, with the overall market continuing to be weak. In the short - term, spot transactions may decline and reach a new low. It is recommended to wait and see for new driving factors [15][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon Data Review 3.1.1 Market Conditions - The spot price of industrial silicon oscillated strongly this week. The ex - factory tax - included reference price of Chinese standard deliverable 553 was 8857 yuan/ton, a rise of 368 yuan/ton or 4.34% compared with March 19, 2026. The futures market rebounded and oscillated strongly, driving the spot price to be firm [7]. - The industrial silicon futures market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with overall weak oscillation this week. The main contract price briefly soared at the beginning of the week and then declined. As of Friday's close, it was 8625 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the beginning of the week. Market participation cooled down, with the trading volume of the main contract about 165,800 lots and the open interest around 223,200 lots [37]. 3.1.2 Influencing Factors - **Macro**: The performance of Dongyue Silicon Materials in 2025 was not good, with a year - on - year decline in revenue and a net loss. The downstream demand was weak this week, providing insufficient support for the industrial silicon price. The market procurement was mainly for rigid needs and small orders, and manufacturers' willingness to stock up was low [11]. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream industries was generally weak. The polysilicon price continued to fall, and the acceptance of raw materials was limited. The organic silicon maintained rigid - need procurement, and there were rumors that the organic silicon monomer plants might further cut production next month. The aluminum rod enterprises continued to resume production, but the overall procurement of industrial silicon increased limitedly. The export volume in February 2026 decreased compared with the previous month [11]. - **Supply**: The overall production this week changed little. A Yunnan enterprise stopped production, but the production reduction was not obvious due to the weekend. Currently, only 2 enterprises in Yunnan and 1 in Sichuan are in production. A northern enterprise plans to resume production in mid - April. Large manufacturers have no plans to increase or decrease production, and the industry's production capacity release is restrained [13]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slightly to 499,100 tons, a decrease of 0.6% compared with the previous week. The overall industry inventory remained at a high level, mainly concentrated in the northern social warehouses. The futures inventory as of March 27 was 111,385 tons, an increase of 25 tons compared with the previous week [13]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week, with electricity and raw material costs forming the bottom support for the price. The industry profit was generally low this week, with obvious regional differentiation [13]. 3.2 Polysilicon Data Review 3.2.1 Market Conditions - The polysilicon futures fell rapidly this week, with more cases of selling at lower prices to increase sales volume. The market transaction center continued to move down. The spot price of Chinese P - type polysilicon was 33,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,000 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the N - type was 39,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton [15]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also declined to varying degrees this week [137]. 3.2.2 Influencing Factors - **Macro**: A large - scale photovoltaic project in the Czech Republic was awarded to Aiko Solar, which is expected to promote the development of the local clean energy industry [17]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand was generally weak. Silicon wafer enterprises were cautious in raw material procurement, mainly for rigid - need replenishment. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components was weak, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [17]. - **Supply**: This week, a factory had local equipment problems, but it had no substantial impact on production and shipment. Two manufacturers did not reach their production increase plans this month. An Inner Mongolia factory is expected to start production in May, and a Xinjiang factory has a maintenance plan in June. The overall polysilicon industry's operating rate is maintained at 30%. The production in March is expected to recover to 86,000 tons, and the production in April is expected to be around 85,000 - 88,000 tons, basically the same as in March [18]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory this week was 381,600 tons, an increase of 0.39% compared with the previous week. The market was in a situation of oversupply, and the inventory was accumulating day by day [142]. - **Cost and Profit**: The average production cost of polysilicon this week was 44,189.79 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. The gross profit and gross profit margin rebounded month - on - month to - 5,663.47 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.03% [152].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The expectation of interest rate hikes is rising, and there is a significant inventory reduction in China. The Shanghai copper market is temporarily in a state of oscillation [1] - The copper market is affected by multiple factors, including macro - level negatives, demand - side positives, and supply - side neutral factors [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Price Data - The Shanghai copper futures price has rebounded in a volatile manner this week, but the increase is limited [9] - The copper spot price is driven by consumption, and the discount has gradually stabilized [12] 02 Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index has dropped by $1.53 per ton week - on - week to -$68.85 per ton, continuing to decline [16] - The copper concentrate port inventory is 458,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 143,000 tons, and it is lower than the same period last year [19] - The refined - scrap copper price difference has rebounded this week [20] - The estimated electrolytic copper production in China in March is nearly 1.2 million tons, a record high, with a month - on - month increase of 4.62% and a year - on - year increase of 6.51% [22] - The cumulative import of unwrought copper and copper products in China from January to February is 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [23] - The electrolytic copper spot inventory has decreased significantly this week, but it is still higher than the same period last year, and the bonded area inventory continues to decline [25] - The LME copper inventory continues to increase, and the COMEX copper inventory remains stable [26] - The operating rate of refined copper rods remains at a high level, but new orders are suppressed due to the rebound of Shanghai copper [28] - From March 1st to 22nd, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China decreased by 17% year - on - year [32] - The component production in March fell short of expectations, and some enterprises' orders decreased due to export restrictions [33] - The total production plan of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in April decreased by 3.6% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [34] 03 Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in February was 2.38 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, and M2 increased by 9% year - on - year [38] - The US composite PMI in March unexpectedly dropped to 51.4, and the growth of the service industry slowed down [41] - The president of the Chicago Fed said that there may be a situation where interest rates need to be raised [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report Glass - **Bullish Logic**: The Two Sessions set a positive tone, and the new construction area of the real - estate industry in 2026 may reach the bottom. The glass industry has poor profit, low valuation, several production lines have been cold - repaired, and daily production is not high. The rapid rise in crude oil prices provides a positive atmosphere and raises the expectation of cost increase [8]. - **Bearish Logic**: Demand is sluggish, and the market expects no improvement in 2026. Inventory is high, and forward prices are still high [9]. - **View**: The glass market will fluctuate within a range. It is still advisable to consider short - selling on rallies, but the downside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the spill - over effects from the outside [10]. 纯碱 - **Bullish Logic**: The Two Sessions set a positive tone. Production profit is low, export volume is not low, and static valuation is not high. Overseas production capacity has exited. The rapid rise in crude oil prices provides a positive atmosphere and raises the expectation of cost increase [13]. - **Bearish Logic**: Long - term production capacity is increasing, resulting in a loose supply. Demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass is not ideal. Inventory and production are not low, and forward prices are high [14]. - **View**: In the short term, the market will fluctuate within a range, but overall, supply exceeds demand. It is advisable to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the impact of the external market [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Week - level Core Points and Strategies - **Glass Strategy**: The cash - and - carry arbitrage has achieved significant profits. It is advisable to transfer positions to far - month contracts for rolling operations [11]. - **纯碱 Strategy**: The cash - and - carry arbitrage should be transferred to far - month contracts for rolling operations. Overall, a short - biased allocation is recommended [16]. 02 Glass Data Review - **Indicators**: Include glass spot price, glass basis and Hubei - Shahe price difference, inventory, production profit, operating capacity and operating rate, and daily melting volume [22][24][27]. 03纯碱 Data Review - **Indicators**: Include market price, basis, inventory, heavy soda ash profit, operating rate and production, and glass - end daily melting volume [44][45][48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the tone of the Two Sessions is positive, laying a foundation for the good development of the domestic economy. The changing situation in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical products, which may affect the cost and sentiment of other commodities, as well as economic factors such as interest rates. Due to cost increases and the relatively low valuation of the black industry, it may have an impact on the bottom - up of black prices, but the overall fundamentals of the black industry are average, and the actual impact is not significant [141] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Weekly Report Thinking Explanation - **Valuation**: It addresses the static issue of whether a commodity is expensive or not. By comparing with history, production costs, spot prices, and import/regional price differences, an objective judgment can be made. When the situation is clear, there are usually good investment opportunities and strategies [8] - **Driver**: It is about how future valuations will change. The biggest driver comes from changes in the industrial pattern and capacity. Inventory changes are worthy of attention as they reflect recent changes in demand, production, and imports/exports [8] - **Other**: The formation of the final view and the expression of strategies are the result of multiple factors. Valuation and driver provide a basis for analysis, but additional thinking may be needed to achieve better results. The weekly report explores investment opportunities in the black industry from these three aspects and uses key data for verification [9] 02 Main Logic Summary of Each Variety Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Bullish Logic**: The Two Sessions set a positive tone. Steel mill profits are average, and there may be pressure to reduce supply due to the 2026 capacity replacement policy. The upcoming demand season and better - than - expected exports, along with rising energy prices and a strong overall commodity atmosphere [13] - **Bearish Logic**: The era of real estate and infrastructure is over, and the export license system is implemented. Profits have improved, raw materials are in oversupply, inventory is large, and cost increases are limited [14] - **Viewpoint**: The price will continue to fluctuate within a range in the later period [15] - **Strategy**: Buy low and sell high [16] Ore - **Bullish Logic**: The ore basis still has an advantage, steel mill profits have improved. The comprehensive cost of newly -投产 ore is high, the rhythm is highly uncertain, and many are in non - traditional regions. Indian steel production is rising, Iranian ore exports are blocked, the progress of Simandou may be weaker than expected, and the price of crude oil has risen, increasing freight costs [57] - **Bearish Logic**: Ore production capacity is expected to increase, Simandou will enter the market. The cash cost of new production capacity is low, future steel demand is unlikely to improve significantly, and ore inventory is high [57] - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation of ore has marginally improved due to factors such as Iran, but the overall pattern remains unchanged [58] - **Strategy**: Wait for the price of far - month ore to rise before making a decision [59] Coking Coal and Coke - **Bullish Logic**: Domestic coal supply may be affected by future environmental protection factors. Rising crude oil prices have a price - comparison pulling effect on coal, and the demand for coal in the coal - chemical industry is expected to increase. The current valuation is not high, and sea - coal imports have stopped due to price issues [79] - **Bearish Logic**: Domestic coal is in the process of resuming production, and the probability of further tightening in the later period is low. Coal imports from Mongolia and Russia will remain high in 2026, and the previous high prices have attracted hedging positions [79] - **Viewpoint**: It is highly likely that coking coal and coke will fluctuate within a range [80] - **Strategy**: The coking coal spot - futures arbitrage has shrunk significantly. Choose the right time to shift positions to far - month contracts and operate in a rolling manner [81] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Bullish Logic**: The price is not high, and production profits are low. The variety is small, and volatility can be easily amplified. Manganese ore prices have risen significantly due to factors such as Australian weather and diesel. Silicon manganese production has decreased. There are rumors that South Africa will impose an export tax on manganese ore. Iron - water production is expected to rise, there is an expectation of an increase in differential electricity prices, and rising crude oil prices boost sentiment and raise cost expectations [104] - **Bearish Logic**: It is expected that demand will not grow significantly in 2026, production capacity is loose and new capacity is added. Silicon manganese inventory is high, and ferromanganese inventory is also not low. If the futures price continues to rise, the spot - futures price difference will be favorable [105] - **Viewpoint**: The rise in manganese ore prices has led to some performance of silicon manganese. Pay attention to the spot - futures price difference [106] 03 Strategy Tracking and Summary - **Summary**: The overall situation is affected by the positive tone of the Two Sessions and the rise in crude oil and chemical products. The black industry's fundamentals are average, and the real impact on prices is not significant [141] - **Strategy**: The spot - futures arbitrage of coking coal, glass, and soda ash has performed well. Choose the right time to shift positions to far - month contracts and operate in a rolling manner. Wait for the improvement of ore. Glass and soda ash remain in a bearish pattern, and short positions can be taken on rallies and operated in a rolling manner [142]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro environment is bearish, and Shanghai Aluminum is weak; there is an expectation of a reduction in bauxite supply [1] - Shanghai Aluminum is weak, but downstream purchasing sentiment is good. However, social inventories are high, and discounts are under pressure [15] 3. Summary by Directory 01 Price Data - This week, the center of the Shanghai Aluminum futures price has significantly declined [8] - The spread between the April and May contracts of Shanghai Aluminum has slightly increased week-on-week; the LME Aluminum 0 - 3M premium has strengthened this week [11] 02 Fundamental Data - Cost factors are driving up the price of imported ores [18] - Guinea is discussing with mining companies to control the supply of ores [23] - The monthly spread of alumina is under pressure [24] - Domestic alumina inventories are still increasing [27] - According to Steel Union, the weekly output of domestic alumina has decreased by 0.5 tons to 1.78 million tons [29] - The import window for alumina has opened [30] - Domestic alumina inventories have increased by 64,000 tons to 5.834 million tons [34] - The room for improvement in the utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is limited [38] - According to Steel Union, the weekly output of domestic electrolytic aluminum has remained flat at 859,700 tons [39] - Aluminum imports are at a premium [41] - This week, electrolytic aluminum spot inventories are still increasing and are at a high level year-on-year, while aluminum rod spot inventories are decreasing [44] - LME aluminum inventories have decreased week-on-week [47] - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum products has increased week-on-week [51] - During the traditional consumption peak season in March, downstream demand has been released [56] - From January to February in China, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year-on-year [57] - Last week, the transaction areas of new and second-hand houses in 10 key cities increased week-on-week but decreased year-on-year [61] - The production plan for household air conditioners in March is 23.34 million units, a decrease of 6.1% compared to the actual performance of the same period last year [62] - The production plan for refrigerators in March is 8.43 million units, an increase of 1.6% compared to the actual performance of the same period last year [65] - The production plan for washing machines in March is 7.34 million units, a decrease of 3.4% compared to the actual performance of the same period last year [66] - From March 1st to 15th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 28% year-on-year [69] - This week, the domestic component inventory has slightly increased. The conflict in the Middle East has affected transportation and demand [71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, precious metals are under adjustment pressure due to the high - oil - price tail risk, and the core pricing logic revolves around the evolution of the US - Iran conflict, the release of economic recession panic, and the rhythm of liquidity repair. It is recommended to wait and not blindly bottom - fish before the US stock market stabilizes [3]. - The global economic outlook uncertainty intensifies, and industrial demand expectations decline. Silver, platinum, and palladium are affected by macro - level industrial demand suppression in the short term, with silver having greater retracement pressure due to more concentrated leveraged funds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Influencing Factors - Geopolitical conflicts: The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has increased the security pressure in the Gulf region, threatening the shipping safety of the Strait of Hormuz. It has pushed up international oil price fluctuations, increased the risk of global inflation rebound, and led to a typical cost - push inflation. This has forced central banks to maintain high interest rates, delaying interest rate cuts, weakening economic growth momentum, and increasing recession concerns. Precious metals have short - term support due to hedging demand, but risk assets are under pressure [4]. - Monetary policy environment: During the "Super Central Bank Week", most central banks, except the Reserve Bank of Australia, maintained interest rates unchanged, sending a hawkish signal. The Middle East conflict has pushed up energy prices and inflation risks. Central banks have listed energy supply disruptions as a key risk, raising inflation expectations. The Fed's interest rate cut times have been reduced to 1 this year, and the timing has been postponed to the second half of the year. The European and British central banks are not considering easing for now, and the Bank of Japan maintains a gradual tightening path. Precious metals and risk assets are under pressure [4]. 3.2 ETF Position Tracking - Gold ETF: The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased to 1056.99 tons, with a reduction of 14.57 tons during the week, indicating a decline in investors' physical allocation demand for gold [8]. - Silver ETF: The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased to 15248.9 tons, with a reduction of 211.28 tons during the week, showing a decline in investors' physical allocation demand for silver [9]. 3.3 Exchange Inventory - Gold exchange inventory: The report mentions the gold exchange inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided [38]. - Silver exchange inventory: The report mentions the silver exchange inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided [43]. 3.4 Domestic and International Futures - Spot Price Differences The report mentions the domestic and international futures - spot price differences, but no specific data analysis is provided [52]. 3.5 Precious Metal Ratios The report mentions precious metal ratios, but no specific data analysis is provided [60]. 3.6 Gold ETF Volatility Index - The gold ETF volatility index (GVZ) is 35.25, at the 94.8% level of the past - year historical percentile, up from 32.31 last Friday. The Shanghai Gold main - contract at - the - money implied volatility is 37.05%, at the 96.81% level of the past - year historical percentile, up from 25.56 last Friday. The Shanghai Silver main - contract at - the - money implied volatility is 72.12%, at the 84.86% level of the past - year historical percentile, down from 77.56% last Friday [7][65][69][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The qualitative assessment of the balance sheet is questionable, and the demand in March and April needs to be observed. The supply and demand are both increasing, and there may be an excess of 0.5 tons in March. It is necessary to observe whether there will be more unexpected positive news in subsequent demand [7][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: - Domestic supply: The weekly start - up rate has continued to increase in all process segments. In March, the lithium carbonate production increased by 28% month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the hedging supply of recycled materials. The exchange has stricter requirements for the moisture and impurities of the benchmark delivery products. Guocheng Mining's subsidiary Jinxin Mining is expected to reach full production in March [9] - Foreign supply (import): Focus on the import of spodumene and lithium carbonate, especially the impact of the US's procurement of strategic materials such as lithium carbonate, the joint statement on critical minerals between Chile and the US, the export ban in Zimbabwe, and the production increase in Australia. Australia plans to increase tariffs on spodumene, and the final implementation needs to be observed. From January to February, the import of lithium concentrate increased by 26% year - on - year, and the import of lithium carbonate increased by 64% year - on - year, with imports from Chile and Argentina increasing by 56% and 72% respectively [9] - **Demand**: In March, the production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase by 19.3% and 23.6% respectively month - on - month. Solid - state batteries are a direction worthy of continuous attention, and there is still strong policy support. Currently, more attention should be paid to the increasing demand for lithium iron phosphate. From April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for battery products will be gradually reduced and cancelled [9] - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory has continued to decline, with 98,900 tons this week (- 86 tons), and the de - stocking has slowed down. The warehouse receipts decreased during the week, reaching 34,318 tons as of this Friday, a decrease of 2,085 tons during the week (including a decrease of 1,506 tons in factory warehouse receipts). The weekly available inventory of lithium ore is 105,000 tons (about 14,000 tons of LCE), a decrease of 15,000 tons of ore compared to the previous week [9] - **Valuation**: As of this Friday, based on the main contract, the net cash inflows from purchasing spodumene and lepidolite externally are approximately - 0.02 million yuan/ton and 0.13 million yuan/ton respectively; calculated according to the SMM spot valuation, they are approximately 0.48 million yuan/ton and 0.64 million yuan/ton respectively [9] - **Balance Sheet**: Considering factors such as the seasonal increase in the start - up rate at the salt lake end, a significant increase in imports in March, and March being the last time node for battery export rush, there may be an excess of 0.5 tons in March [9] 3.2 Data Chart Tracking - **Price Changes**: As of this Friday, the SMM valuation of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 149,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10,000 yuan/ton (- 6.3%) during the week; lepidolite is 4,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton (- 11.9%) during the week, with a cost reduction of 14,100 yuan/ton; spodumene (6%) is 2,057 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 153 US dollars/ton (- 6.9%) during the week, with a cost reduction of 9,305 yuan/ton [20] - **Start - up and Production**: The weekly start - up rate and production of lithium salt plants have increased. The weekly start - up rate of lithium carbonate smelting is 59.05% (+ 1.93%), among which the start - up rate of spodumene is 70.29% (+ 1.79%), mica is 33.61% (+ 2.73%), and salt lake is 59.64% (+ 1.18%). The start - up rate of recycling is 35.08% (+ 0.7%). The weekly production of lithium carbonate is 24,186 tons (+ 760 tons), among which the production at the spodumene end is 14,914 tons (+ 380 tons), the production at the lepidolite end is 3,197 tons (+ 260 tons), the production at the salt lake end is 3,565 tons (+ 70 tons), and the production at the recycling end is 2,510 tons (+ 50 tons) [34][38] - **Import Situation**: From January to February, the import volume of lithium concentrate is 1.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons (+ 19%). Among them, the imports from Australia and Zimbabwe increased by 70,000 tons (+ 12%) and 3,500 tons (+ 3%) respectively. From January to February, 100,000 tons and 0 tons were imported from Mali respectively, and 13,000 tons and 3,000 tons were imported from Mongolia respectively. From January to February, the import of lithium carbonate is 53,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,000 tons (+ 64%). Among them, 31,400 tons were imported from Chile, a year - on - year increase of 11,000 tons (+ 56%), and 19,000 tons were imported from Argentina, a year - on - year increase of 8,000 tons (+ 72%) [50][56] - **Positive Material Production**: SMM estimates that in March, the production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate will increase by 19.3% and 23.6% respectively month - on - month. From the perspective of weekly production, the month - on - month increase of ternary may not reach 19%, and it lags behind year - on - year. The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary increased by 0.2% and 3.1% respectively [57][59][61] - **Terminal Situation**: According to the Passenger Car Association, in January, the national new energy vehicle sales were 945,000, a year - on - year increase of 0.11%. The total scale of energy storage winning bids is still at a seasonal high. In February, the winning bid capacity was 26.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.3 GWh (+ 14%), and the cumulative capacity was 49.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 26.72 GWh (+ 117%) [69] - **Balance Sheet Recalculation**: According to SMM's estimated production schedule and a significant increase in imports, the balance sheet for March may have an excess of 0.5 tons. The subsequent import of foreign ore and lithium salt still needs to be tracked [95]