第一创业：晨会纪要-20250307

Macroeconomic Overview - The GDP growth target is set at around 5%, maintaining the same as last year but with lower difficulty due to a lower base from last year's Q4 growth of 5.4% [4] - The CPI target is set at 2%, down by 1 percentage point from last year, with challenges expected in achieving this target due to low January figures [4] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate is set at 5.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from last year, indicating rising unemployment pressure [4] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is planned at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan [5] - Local government special bonds are proposed at 4.4 trillion yuan, and the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds is set at 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year [5] - The monetary policy aims to maintain liquidity and support the healthy development of the real estate and stock markets through timely adjustments [5] Industry Insights - The domestic lithium battery production is showing signs of recovery, with the top 20 battery manufacturers expected to see a combined production increase of over 60% year-on-year [8] - The construction machinery sector is also experiencing positive trends, with significant production increases reported for hydraulic products and excavators [8] - The improvement in the automotive and construction machinery sectors indicates a higher certainty of domestic economic recovery [8] Company Performance - Marubi Biotechnology has successfully implemented a focus on major products since 2020, leading to significant market recognition, particularly with its "Little Red Pen" eye cream series [11] - The online channel revenue for Marubi has surpassed 84% of total revenue, driven by the success of its major product strategy and effective e-commerce operations [12] - Recent data shows Marubi's GMV reached 180 million yuan in January, a year-on-year increase of 56%, indicating strong market competitiveness [12]