Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD US, with a target price raised from 62, indicating a potential upside of 41.2% from the current price of $43.92 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - JD US has returned to double-digit revenue growth, with a 13% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q4 2024, driven by various business segments achieving double-digit growth. The company expects this trend to continue into Q1 2025, supported by favorable policies and improved retail supply chain capabilities [1][6]. - The report projects a 7.3% revenue growth and an 8.5% profit growth for the year 2025, with adjustments made to revenue and earnings per share forecasts, increasing them by 3% and 5% respectively [1][6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, JD US reported total revenue of RMB 306.08 billion, with product sales revenue of RMB 246.50 billion, and a gross profit margin of 14.2% [6][7]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 11.29 billion, reflecting a 34% year-on-year increase, attributed to supply chain improvements and economies of scale [6][7]. - The company anticipates continued growth in the electric product category, with a projected revenue of RMB 591.93 billion for 2025, representing a 7.3% increase from the previous year [5][9]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is set at RMB 1,243.37 billion, with a projected growth rate of 7.3% [5][9]. - Adjusted operating profit for 2025 is expected to reach RMB 51.22 billion, with an operating profit margin of 4.1% [5][9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 51.90 billion, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [5][9]. Market Position and Trends - JD US has seen a significant increase in active user numbers and order volumes, outpacing the overall retail market. The company has maintained a double-digit growth rate in active user numbers and shopping frequency [6][7]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government subsidies and policy support on the company's growth trajectory, particularly in the electric product segment [1][6].
京东：收入重回双位数增长，预计政策拉动趋势持续-20250307